Nomura Securities’ Global FX Strategy team forecasts a potential strengthening of the U.S. dollar in 2025, driven by two main factors:
- persistently high core inflation in the United States, which may hinder the Federal Reserve’s ability to lower interest rates,
- and the tariff policies of President-elect Trump, which could significantly influence economic conditions.
The analysis also highlights expected currency performance trends for the first half of 2025. Underperformers are likely to include the
- South Korean won,
- Thai baht,
- Singapore dollar,
- Swiss franc,
- and Swedish krona,
The Indonesian rupiah,
- Japanese yen,
- and Norwegian krone
are projected to perform relatively better.
Among Nomura’s recommended trades are long positions on
- USD/CNH, targeting 7.60,
- and USD/KRW, targeting 1,500, by the end of May 2025.
This outlook underscores the intricate relationship between global economic policies and currency market dynamics.
