- Prior month one year inflation expectations 3.0%
- one year and three year inflation expectations remain unchanged at 3.0%
- five year inflation expectations 3% up from 2.7% prior month
- January saw larger expected rise for food, gas, rent, college, medical prices.
- January expected spending levels decline to lowest level since January 2021.
- Labor market expectations were mixed
- Perceptions of access to credit improved in January.
- Household lower perception of financial situation in January
Details from the NY Fed
Inflation Expectations:
- Unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year and 3-year horizons.
- Increased to 3.0% (+0.3 ppt) for the 5-year horizon.
Commodity Price Expectations (Year-Ahead):
- Gas: +2.6% (+0.6 ppt).
- Food: +4.6% (+0.6 ppt).
- Medical care: +6.8% (+1.0 ppt).
- College costs: +5.9% (+0.2 ppt).
- Rent: +6.0% (+0.5 ppt).
Job Market Expectations:
- Probability of losing one’s job: Increased to 14.2% (+2.3 ppt).
- Probability of finding a job within 3 months: Increased to 51.5% (+1.3 ppt).
Household Spending Expectations:
- Declined to 4.4% (-0.4 ppt), the lowest since January 2021.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
