What a day this is turning out to be.

The implied odds of a 50 bps were almost 70% yesterday but have slipped back to 55% in a steady grind. The market just doesn’t know what’s coming but there is clearly some anxiety today about under-delivering. That’s led to a dollar rally and a selloff in bonds.

I think November pricing is even more interesting right now as it’s pegged right at 75 bps. So if you get 25 today and a dovish bent, then that’s not far off. Alternatively, you could get 50 today and that looks underpriced for the possibility of 50 again in a front-loading. Overall though, 75 for November looks about right.

Going out to Sept 2025, pricing is for 236 bps, which is down from 245 bps yesterday.