Oil costs sink as Trump says he is been instructed the killing in Iran is stopping

The oil market has been hit by heavy selling after Trump said that he’s been told the killing in Iran is stopping and that there are no plans for executions.

WTI crude oil is down more than $2 on the headlines.

In a separate (and less impactful) report, the US said additional sales of Venezuelan oil are expected in the coming days and weeks.

The comments from Trump suggest that he’s trying to de-escalate rather than escalate to war in Iran. He’s not exactly saying that the US will stay out of Iran but it’s not the kind of thing you would say before starting a bombing campaign, unless he’s doing it to hide his intentions.

“We have been informed by very important sources on the other side. And they said the killing is stopped and the executions won’t take place,” Trump said in the Oval Office.

For what it’s worth, a number of embassies of evacuated personnel and that’s often a better signal about what’s coming. Britain even temporarily closed its embassy, according to Politico.

Perhaps the US has concluded that the protesters are more likely to bring the government down than US military intervention, which is something that could rally the population.

Trump was saying about the executions appears to be true as Tehran has signalled fast trials and executions, but there are signs of a shift.

In a report from the BBC, they said:

Erfan Soltani, 26, was arrested last Thursday in the city of Fardis,
just west of Tehran. Days later, authorities informed his family his
execution had been scheduled for Wednesday without giving any additional
details, according to Norway-based Kurdish human rights group Hengaw.

A report now from Chanel 4 News cites a relative who says it has been postponed.

Trump had encouraged Iranian protestors and said help was on the way. I don’t think a stay of execution is what they had in mind in terms of ‘help’ so we will see how this develops.

Earlier today, a Reuters report said Trump appears to have decided on a military strike against Iran.

I would suggest that the US isn’t going to launch an Iraq-style war against Iran, so the threat to oil supply is limited. That said, Iran could retaliate and thing can escalate quickly in war.