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Oil markets awaiting the outcomes of Venezuela’s presidential election

Venezuela’s presidential election results are not yet known.

Polls began to close on Sunday.

The contest is Nicolás Maduro’s facing off with opposition candidate Edmundo González. González has been leading in the polls, but in echoes of what we have heard another presidential election, Maduro says a big electoral victory is necessary to avoid “a bloodbath, or a fratricidal civil war”.

For oil, S&P analysts say:

  • The winner of Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election will face an uphill battle in restoring crude production, which has tumbled following years of US sanctions.
  • Those sanctions might be eased if opposition candidate Edmundo González wins, which could help bring in much-needed investments to restore the country’s dilapidated infrastructure.

S&P provide this excellent summary in infographic form:

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