Oil – non-public survey of stock exhibits a headline crude oil draw simply lower than anticipated

Crude prices advanced steadily through Tuesday’s session as tensions between the United States and Iran showed little sign of easing, though the market’s attention is already shifting toward Trump’s planned visit to China on Wednesday.

Middle East developments continued to generate headlines, with an Iranian parliamentary spokesperson raising the possibility of uranium enrichment at 90% as a potential response to any further military strike, a statement that attracted modest upside in prices. Trump, meanwhile, reiterated his assessment that the ceasefire remains precarious.

On the diplomatic front, a source familiar with the negotiations outlined Iran’s preconditions for entering formal talks on its nuclear programme. Tehran is demanding an end to hostilities across all fronts, the removal of all sanctions, the release of frozen assets, compensation for war-related damages, and recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. The final condition in particular is considered a non-starter in Washington.

Shortly before the settlement, prices received an additional lift after reports that Saudi Arabia had carried out undisclosed retaliatory strikes against Iran during the war, with the attacks said to have taken place in late March.

Expectations I had seen centred on:

• Headline crude -2.3 mn barrels
• Distillates -1.3 mn bbls
• Gasoline -2.59 mn

—

This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).

• It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies
• The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. Shut down permitting.

The two reports are quite different.

The official government data comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)

• Its based on data from the Department of Energy and other government agencies
• Whereas information on total crude oil storage levels and variations from the previous week’s levels are both provided by the API report, the EIA report also provides statistics on inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as other significant indicators of the status of the oil market, and storage levels for various grades of crude oil, such as light, medium, and heavy.
• the EIA report is held to be more accurate and comprehensive than the survey from the API