Oil: Private survey of stock reveals a headline crude oil draw vs. construct anticipated

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Expectations I had seen centred on:

• Headline crude +0.5 mn barrels
• Distillates +2.1 mn bbls
• Gasoline +3.2 mn

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This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).

• It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies
• The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. Shut down permitting.

The two reports are quite different.

The official government data comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)

• Its based on data from the Department of Energy and other government agencies
• Whereas information on total crude oil storage levels and variations from the previous week’s levels are both provided by the API report, the EIA report also provides statistics on inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as other significant indicators of the status of the oil market, and storage levels for various grades of crude oil, such as light, medium, and heavy.
• the EIA report is held to be more accurate and comprehensive than the survey from the API

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Oil has been of interest this week after Trump had Venezuela’s Maduro kidnapped and transported to New York for trial.

I posted on the view from Goldman Sachs:

Summary:

• Goldman Sachs left its near-term price forecasts unchanged, projecting average prices of $56 per barrel for Brent crude and $52 for West Texas Intermediate this year.

• Goldman sees limited near-term impact from Venezuela on oil prices

• Any production recovery likely to be gradual and partial

• Infrastructure damage and underinvestment remain major constraints

• Near-term Brent and WTI price forecasts unchanged

• Long-run downside risks increase from added global supply

JPM had a similar nonplussed outlook.

Summary:

• JPMorgan sees limited near-term oil market impact

• Venezuela transition largely priced by bond markets

• Oil “quarantine” remains, but licensing could expand

• Output could rise 250kbpd short term, more later

• Global oil balance impact seen as incremental

I found a bit of fun with bears citing initial lower prices as confirming their view that the military moves would have little impact on the oil price, and then the bulls getting a turn citing the jump back in prices as confirming their view that indeed the moves were significant. I think we can all agree now that there has been something for everyone …