Ørsted A/S (DNNGY) This fall 2023 Earnings Name Transcript

Ørsted A/S (OTCPK:DNNGY) This fall 2023 Outcomes Convention Name February 7, 2024 7:00 AM ET

Firm Individuals

Rasmus Haervig – Investor Relations

Mads Nipper – Group President and CEO

Rasmus Errboe – CFO

Convention Name Individuals

Kristian Tornøe – SEB

Harry Wyburd – BNB Paribas Exane

Lars Heindorff – Nordea

Deepa Venkateswaran – Bernstein

Rob Pulleyn – Morgan Stanley

Alberto Gandolfi – Goldman Sachs

Peter Bisztyga – Financial institution of America

Mark Freshney – UBS

Jenny Ping – Citi

James Model – Deutsche Financial institution

Marc Ip – Berenberg

Ahmed Farman – Jefferies

Klaus Kehl – Nykredit

David Paz – Wolfe Analysis

Martin Tessier – Stifel

Rasmus Haervig

Hiya, everybody, and welcome to Ørsted’s presentation of our Full Yr 2023 Outcomes and our Capital Markets Replace. My title is Rasmus Haervig, and I am heading the Ørsted IR crew, and we have been very a lot wanting ahead to providing you with this replace. In the present day, our CEO, Mads Nipper, will give an replace on our marketing strategy, adopted by our interim CFO, Rasmus Errboe, who will undergo our monetary plan. That can take roughly an hour, and afterwards, we have now an hour allotted for Q&A, the place each the individuals who joined us right here get after at this time, but additionally these following on-line can pose questions.

So with that, over to you, Mads, for the presentation. Thanks.

Mads Nipper

Thanks very a lot, Rasmus, and a heat welcome to these of you right here and likewise for all of those that are following us on-line. We recognize you dialing in on this. As Rasmus mentioned, it is a very busy earnings day, and due to this fact, nice to have you ever right here within the room. As Rasmus mentioned, on prime of naturally presenting our 2023 outcomes, we may also — in mild of a really difficult 2023, we may also current our up to date plan. And we’re very conscious that ’23 was a considerably challenged yr, not simply for us, however for all stakeholders, together with traders, as a result of developments in our U.S.

offshore enterprise and never least the very tough however economically rational resolution to stop growth of Ocean Wind 1 and a pair of for that matter.

That led to important cancellation charges on prime of impairments that we needed to understand is generally additionally for that venture. However with that, let me begin on the enterprise replace, together with the define of each what we have now realized and likewise what will occur from right here. So if we check out the abstract of what Rasmus and myself will likely be presenting. There are primarily 4 elements. One is on the 2023 outcomes the place the underlying enterprise outcomes had been truly roughly DKK1 billion above the highest finish of our guided vary, one thing we had been clearly happy with.

We did see some important strategic milestones. And in addition we had been inside what we had already introduced at Q3 when it comes to each impairments and the anticipated cancellation charges for Ocean Wind 1.

We’re very conscious that none of that takes prime precedence with our traders, however nonetheless, an essential backdrop to additionally share with you in a a lot briefer than regular format. What we have now executed additionally, and we have now labored intensely on that within the final weeks and months is to make sure that we evaluation very rigorously what had been the occasions that led as much as the scenario we had in our U.S. enterprise and likewise particularly that led to the very dramatic developments on Ocean Wind 1, resulting in terminating and ceasing growth of that venture.

We’ve analyzed that and we have now taken learnings which can be already carried out or below implementation. We’ve additionally executed a major threat evaluation of all of our offshore wind initiatives not taking any assumptions that one thing is below management however doing a scientific and structured evaluation of what has occurred in our portfolio and implementing key learnings from that to additional derisk these initiatives. We are going to do this in some element at this time. After which we have now performed a portfolio evaluation resulting in a slimmer, however most significantly, a extra targeted portfolio with the next worth creation and threat stability.

We may also share with you the spine of the up to date plan that we have now, which is a strong marketing strategy that delivers on what we had set it out to do. The core components of that robustness and likewise to make sure that we shield a stable investment-grade score with a robust stability sheet is that we’re lowering and additional phasing our CapEx. We’ve an accelerated and expanded partnerships and farm-down program, and we have determined to have a three-year dividend vacation.

After which additionally, we’re lowering our each growth, but additionally our mounted prices. And let me dwell on that for a second. This has additionally led to us at this time asserting that we’re eradicating throughout this yr 600 to 800 positions within the Firm and at this time additionally asserting that 250 colleagues will go away Ørsted. We’re clearly dedicated to try this in a respectful and truthful method, however it is a crucial a part of our program to make sure that we additional strengthen our competitiveness. All of this may result in an estimated DKK1 billion saving in ’26 in comparison with ’23 on a like-for-like foundation.

All of this results in, and you’ll hear us say that once more that the up to date steering is an unchanged 150 to 300 foundation factors unfold to WACC. That is industry-leading, as I am positive you are conscious, and absolutely loaded in order that it’s absolutely value loaded with our mounted value as effectively. An unchanged common 14% return on capital employed. A 35-to 38-gigawatt of estimated put in capability by 2030. And that may be a discount, however it is usually one which results in an funding program, which on a like-for-like foundation is roughly 1/3.

So evaluating the DKK475 billion to — introduced on the Capital Markets Day to roughly DKK270 billion now’s on a like-for-like foundation lowering for what we spent final yr, a 1/3 discount. And that results in DKK39 billion to DKK43 billion EBITDA by 2030, excluding new partnerships. That’s round 8% common development. And I’ll point out that this could — this quantity would have been round 10% had we ended in the course of our guided vary for ’23. So the CAGR in direction of 2030 is of course mathematically lowered due to the higher-than-expected efficiency of the underlying enterprise in ’23.

So that is the spine and the core messages of what we have now for you at this time, however we’ll clearly elaborate on all of those dimensions.

Let me very briefly, once more, spherical up 2023 with the underlying enterprise outcomes. DKK24 billion of earnings earlier than partnerships and cancellation charges. We did see a 12.9% return on capital employed, internet of cancellation charges impairments. We did finish the yr at DKK26.8 billion impairment, which was a tad decrease than estimated pushed by rates of interest being decrease. And we did finish with an nearly 50% discount in our Scope 1, 2, 3 emissions and likewise a really important discount in our Scope 1 and a pair of, pushed by burning a lot much less gasoline in our mixed warmth and energy crops.

The strategic milestones included 4.5 gigawatts of ultimate funding resolution, together with the world’s largest offshore wind farm, Hornsea 3. We’ll come again to that as a result of it’s such a giant venture for the Firm.

However we additionally noticed that there was good progress in a few of our chosen excessive precedence markets. On this case, exemplified. We’re getting the electrical energy enterprise license for the larger Incheon venture of 1.6 gigawatts near a heavy load heart in round photo voltaic. We did proceed our profitable farm-down monitor with two accomplished transactions. We had Gode development progress, and we’re nearing COD of each South Fork wind and Better Changhua 1 and 2a.

After which we broke floor on Europe’s largest e-methanol facility, FlagshipONE, and likewise on our Danish carbon seize and storage alternative right here. That is all I might say about ’23. Rasmus will come again to slightly bit extra of the main points, together with the ’24 steering. However in any other case, allow us to flip to a few of the occasions that we have now realized, that we have now carried out and that we formed the spine of our plan going ahead.

So what are a few of the destructive occasions which have hit us because the Capital Markets Day and significantly hit our funding capability. Most notably, unsurprisingly, is the cancellation prices of the ceasing growth of Ocean Wind 1. Since that is FFO, that is one thing that has a cloth influence on our funding capability. However we have additionally seen that the ahead costs and therefore, additionally the anticipated revenues have come down. And in choose markets simply during the last six months, we have now seen the markets come down as — the ahead costs come down as a lot as 40%.

By way of the availability chain impacts, there are two impacts talked about on the backside. One is a common inflation, which has continued, albeit not on the similar steep charges, however the extra notable influence is that as a part of our threat evaluation, we have now elevated each our contingencies, but additionally the pre-commitments we have now put in to make sure that we have now backup capability for the vital path or a few of the elements of the venture execution that will be prone to resulting in extra materials impacts. That comes at a value, however it’s to be thought-about an assurance coverage towards a lot larger potential influence. So we take into account it a constructive to be higher ready for that. And which means which may also kind the construction for what I’ll say for the subsequent quarter-hour that we have now concluded the evaluation of the occasions in Ocean Wind 1, carried out learnings.

We’ve executed a threat evaluation on all of our initiatives. We’ve executed a portfolio evaluation resulting in a smaller, however once more, extra importantly, targeted portfolio. After which we’re implementing measures to make sure that we have now a robust and strong plan.

And we, with out additional ado, flip — or, additional delay flip to the occasions of Ocean Wind 1 as a result of that is probably the most important influence that hit us in 2023. Beginning on the left facet, what truly occurred? So for the context, these initiatives, so all of our early-stage U.S. initiatives have been materially hit over an extended time frame by the widely antagonistic {industry} circumstances. That’s one thing that has impacted the whole {industry}.

However as a result of these initiatives had been with none type of inflation indexing, rising rates of interest and considerably rising CapEx inflation, which was 3x to 4x as excessive as shopper value inflation and even increased in an immature market just like the U.S., it was already a venture whose returns had been below stress and who additionally misplaced a lot of the float within the schedule.

We had chosen, which appeared on the proper — as the appropriate resolution on the time to proceed to mature the venture, to develop the venture and on the similar time to commit capital into the venture with the intent to maintain the plant and the dedicated COD date. With the information we have now at this time, that was not the appropriate resolution as a result of that meant that in a pre-FID venture, we had been committing very important capital. And given the occasions that hit, this was the flawed resolution with the information that we have now at this time.

On prime of that, we made — we had made additionally with the intent to qualify for the tax credit. We had made ourselves depending on immature provide chain within the U.S. market. We had excessive confidence that this was being constructed. So we had been deeply engaged in constructing new amenities.

We had been a part of truly guaranteeing that there may very well be ultimate funding choices on new construct vessels. We felt snug that this was effectively on monitor, however it progressed slower attributable to an entire variety of causes akin to lack of certified labor, difficulties ramping up and different challenges that really hit.

And that meant that, total, and particularly over the summer season and early fall, we obtained various delays and suppliers that did not stay as much as the commitments that meant that in totality, it was very, very onerous hit. And on the time, we discovered ourselves out of skill to e book backup capability for putting in in 2025. Had we identified earlier than which may have been doable. However on the time we obtained this data, it was too late, which, as I am positive a lot of you have got heard us say earlier than, that meant that the venture would face such a giant delay that we’d find yourself having to recontract a lot of the CapEx at even increased charges. That was what finally led to the very tough however as I discussed, economically rational resolution to grab growth.

On prime of that, we discovered ourselves, and that’s one other studying that we’re implementing that despite the fact that on the time, they did not appear vital, there was — there have been a few native development permits that turned out to be tougher and a much bigger threat for the venture than assumed, and we additionally had an additional delay on the air allow for the venture, which once more publish extra uncertainty. And on the time of the choice, it was additionally not clear what extra tax credit score we’d qualify for.

Extra importantly, what have we realized and what are we implementing as primarily based on this sequence of occasions with Ocean Wind 1. On the availability chain, we have now executed a major extra deal with contingency planning, primarily state of affairs planning of what’s it that may go flawed, particularly a few of the materials dangers that we’re figuring out occur on the similar time. You will be unsurprised to listen to that we have now already had for an extended, very long time type of a really diligent work with particular person threat. As a matter of truth, our venture has and has at all times had a threat register of over 100 threat recognized, quantified and what we have to do to mitigate them.

However it’s extra within the occasion of claiming what if these occur concurrently if a few of the ones which have vital dependencies occur, we have now upped our skill to work with that. And that additionally means we have now upped our skill to extra proactively safe, particularly set up capability, effectively forward of time in order that we will mitigate probably the most notable impacts of this. That’s an absolute key studying. We additionally realized that particularly in newer markets but additionally when we have now new capability being constructed, akin to new construct vessels being even nearer on the yards, on the manufacturing amenities to do the initiatives, do they observe the development time traces? If not, can we assist?

Or can we additionally now, in these circumstances, do extra proactive contingency planning?

After which particularly after a interval with very risky environments, we have now additionally clearly prioritized that we are going to get solely inflation listed contracts, particularly in markets just like the U.S., the place there’s a very long time from award to really FID. In a market just like the U.Okay., the place, by the best way, there’s inflation safety, there is a a lot, a lot shorter time line between award and FID. So decrease dangers there.

By way of the CapEx and break-away profiles, learnings in that a part of our enterprise is a considerably increased scrutiny of pre-FID commitments. We won’t once more get to a degree of pre-FID commitments to what we noticed in our early-stage U.S. initiatives and particularly not in Ocean Wind 1. Capital commitments, pre-FID will likely be at a completely totally different degree than we noticed in these initiatives. And we have now already carried out that as exemplified with, for instance, Ocean Wind 2, which was a more moderen product, we had a lot, a lot, a lot much less dedicated than that.

So this was a studying that was already underway, however we are going to additional scrutinize and additional restrict the dangers of these pre-FID commitments.

Identical factor we wish to have all vital native permits in place earlier than we take FID and/or do capital commitments. And eventually, we are going to clearly prioritize initiatives with a flexibility on the time line for the COD as a result of if we do have that flexibility to push a venture one, two years, then that is one thing that offers us important extra flexibility additionally when it comes to how we commit our CapEx. And that’s even higher for the off-taker of this energy as a result of it is lots higher than a venture will get constructed a yr later than it would not get constructed in any respect.

After which on the governance and evaluation of the dangers. Additionally a number of already carried out learnings right here. So we’re doing — we have at all times executed stage-gate opinions, however we’re doing now in an up manner inner opinions in order that groups — professional groups which can be outdoors of the venture crew are actually scrutinizing forward of the stage gates to make sure that earlier than we dedicated an extra sources, we have gone by a challenged session. And on choose initiatives, like we have now executed for a number of of our present initiatives, we have additionally had exterior opinions who will actually problem and commencing is a one thing right here that we would not be seeing.

We won’t do this for each venture as a result of we do strongly consider we have now the deepest functionality within the Firm, however we have now chosen that we are going to proceed to decide on that on choose initiatives, we are going to do these threat deep dives. And eventually, we have now additionally upped the frequency and the scrutiny with which we and prime administration and likewise the Board of Administrators take a view of those prime threat. And we have already institutionalized since a few months that we do a scientific project-by-project prime threat evaluation, together with pushing for mitigating actions if wanted.

So with all of this stuff, we really feel much more snug not solely that we can’t run into an Ocean Wind 1 like scenario once more, but additionally that our common organizational functionality to higher and extra proactively handle dangers is healthier. And with that, let me flip to our below development portfolio. That is one thing which is slightly bit uncommon for a CEO to do. However given the circumstance scenario we discover ourselves in, we discover it prudent that I truly take you thru a project-by-project evaluation and standing on the place we’re, together with what are we extra particularly doing and getting ready on every of those initiatives.

So if we begin with Better Changhua 1 and 2a and South Fork, these are two initiatives which can be finishing as we converse. So we’re putting in, as we converse, the final 4 generators of Better Changhua 1 and 2a, Taiwan’s first actually huge important scaled offshore wind farm, and it’ll fee earlier than finish of Q1. And likewise, for South Fork, which is the primary utility-scale offshore wind farm within the U.S. and particularly additionally within the state of New York, we have now put in 10 generators. We’ve the eleventh loaded.

And as quickly because the climate permits, it should exit and end that development as effectively. Each of them anticipated with a COD with no or restricted dangers earlier than finish of Q1.

Turning to the German Programme, which, as chances are you’ll know, encompass two initiatives, so Gode Wind 3 and BorkumRiffgrund 3. Gode Wind 3 is on plan. We’ve accomplished set up of all monopiles. And BorkumRiffgrund 3 can be progressing effectively, however with a tighter schedule. And that’s pushed primarily by the provider of monopiles, a provider that continues to have some ramp-up challenges despite the fact that the present plan doesn’t point out a delay of the venture, we’re anyway in superior discussions to safe an extension of the set up vessel to make sure that any additional potential delays that really will not hit us.

So it is a venture the place we’re which exemplifies that with this threat, despite the fact that the present plan and present messaging from the provider doesn’t point out so, we’re saying we have to have the prudency given additionally our presence on the fabrication facet that the ending of these monopiles. There’s a threat that it will get delayed, and we’re ready to pay that premium. On Better Changhua 2b and 4, an important milestone reached. Additionally inside the previous couple of days, we have now completed the manufacturing with the offshore substation forward of time on our yacht in Singapore.

And in addition right here, we have now — we do have a compressed however unplanned schedule. We’re additionally right here in energetic discussions to e book proactively set up capability into the start of ’26 within the occasion that the 2025 schedule turns into too compressed. And for these of you who is aware of how dramatic it may be to enter a brand new set up window, the financial influence of which can be a lot decrease if we already, in due time, truly e book and plan that extra capability. So one other instance the place a tighter schedule leaves us to be in superior discussions to e book that.

On Revolution Wind, which was our first very huge venture to FID at a tough day for the Firm, specifically on November 1, we have now signed all main contracts. We’ve, as I consider, I additionally talked about at our Q3 name, secured a full 100% backup capability for the delayed joint compliant vessel. We’ve this ability, which is a barge resolution to put in. By the best way, the identical resolution that we have now on South Fork and we’re — we have now ramped up the set up pace to the required degree. So we’re seeing that set up scope carry out.

And we have now a really sturdy focus additionally right here on the monopile supply as a result of 20% of the monopiles for Revolution Wind are delivered by the identical European provider who has the ramp-up challenges that I discussed for the German Programme.

We had 13 monopiles being delivered for that venture by the provider. Two of them being for the offshore substations. And people are those we’re prioritizing. So as a substitute of simply pushing ahead, we are saying, pull ahead these two which can be important for the monopile — for the offshore substations as a result of then any delay could have an immaterial influence on the venture economics, whereas if we could not set up the offshore substations, we merely could not export the ability. So that is one thing how we’re additionally working in particulars with guaranteeing that we proactively mitigate and handle a few of the bottlenecks that we face.

Hornsea 3, I am going to make a particular mini-deep dive on in a minute as a result of it’s so huge that it needs particular consideration. Dawn Wind, which is the primary of our three awarded initiatives, so not but FID-ied. We’ve signed most contracts. As I am positive most of you may be conscious, we have now bid that into the New York 4, so a speedy re-bid route, the place there have been three bidders for a fairly important capability. So we have now — we’re optimistic a few good consequence of that with out understanding something, after all.

We expect in Q1 the report of resolution, which is the important thing federal allow with all permits being in place over the — no later than over the summer season. So a few of it is best to have the considered is there any regulatory threat of a possible White Home regime change that needs to be concluded effectively forward of that. After which additionally right here, there is a very sturdy deal with the monopile supply, which once more was deliberate to be majority from a provider that has ramped up challenges. However we have now descoped proactively already now from 84 to twenty-eight monopiles. And that signifies that two extra suppliers have crammed within the remaining capability, and they’re each on monitor.

So we really feel that this venture from an execution viewpoint is in a superb place. And in addition right here, we have now partly secured backup capability, however are in dialogue whether or not we additionally like we have now for Revolution Wind to go for 100% backup capability. On Baltica 2, the place we anticipate FID later this yr, that can be a venture the place we have now secured a lot of the contracts. We’ve comparatively low breakaway prices, assuming that we get an FID not too deep into the yr. We’ve, for prudency, elevated the venture contingencies with out being significantly earmarked for any identified bottlenecks within the venture.

And eventually, for Baltica 3, which, as we have at all times shared, is below reconfiguration. That’s nonetheless the case as a result of that’s the one venture that we’re nonetheless not snug will get into our guided vary, however we’re working onerous on it. In any other case, we have to take inventory on that in later within the yr as to what we wish to do with that venture, however very restricted cancellation charges with that venture.

Leaving this slide, two key messages. Most significantly, given the mitigating actions we have now taken, the deep dives we have now made, we do really feel we have now a manageable threat profile and that we have now an excellent perception and taking the proactive or are taking the proactive mitigating actions. And secondly, that apart from the 2 U.S. initiatives, which can be each very engaging from a forward-looking returns viewpoint, the portfolio of Asia Pacific and Europe initiatives are throughout the guided vary of 150 to 300 foundation factors unfold to WACC. A key piece of data, regardless of the turbulence that we have now seen and regardless of the extra value for the mitigating actions that we have now taken.

Let me flip particularly to Hornsea 3. I will not dwell very lengthy on it. However as we mentioned, that is DKK70 billion to DKK75 billion CapEx funding. So near 50% of the market cap of the whole firm. And due to this fact, we thought it might be a related for traders to have that perception.

Why can we really feel snug with that threat profile? Beginning with type of the framework circumstances. This can be a very engaging and well-known regulatory framework exemplified with the truth that we have now the chance to bid within the non-CfD capability for Hornsea 3. That is a gorgeous alternative for us to extend the worth and a key part of with the ability to deliver it ahead to FID. There is a very brief time line from FID — from award to FID, which signifies that a few of the dangers we have seen materialized within the U.S.

market are very, very small in comparison with something we have seen in different elements of the world. All permits are in place.

So earlier than we even bid in, we had all permits in place for Hornsea 3. We’ve CPI inflation listed CfD agreements, and we have now a well known and well-developed regional provide chain in Europe. We do have all main contracts in place, and we have now little or no doubt that the LCOE per megawatt is the bottom of any below development venture in offshore on the planet as a result of they had been secured at engaging ranges. We do have a flexibility and float in our schedules. After which we have now additionally ensured that despite the fact that there are two comparatively new construct vessels for the venture, we aren’t the primary offtake of these or a few of the teething points that we might even see from new construct vessels will probably be over with after we get them.

And we have now a contractually dedicated begin date and a versatile finish date. So the set up scope is one the place we really feel snug. After which on the execution, that is the third venture in a row. So Hornsea 1, Hornsea 2 and this — now this venture, it’s one the place we have now a really skilled crew, in all probability our most skilled crew, and it’s a venture from a value outstanding viewpoint enjoys important O&M synergies with Hornsea 1 and a pair of and who is aware of in a not-too-distant future additionally on Hornsea 4.

Turning in direction of our portfolio evaluation. The three key rules we have now used when we have now executed our portfolio evaluation on the finish of final yr had been most significantly worth over development. It’s vital for us that we may give a agency dedication that after we prioritize a venture for funding, it delivers inside our guided vary, even when it means reducing our development ambitions. The opposite factor is to have a stable capital construction the place no matter we do with the totality of portfolio helps a stable investment-grade credit standing.

And eventually, with the chance set that we see to make sure that we zoom in very clearly on the best precedence markets. So core markets and a choose variety of excessive potential future markets. And the end result of that portfolio view within the briefest doable kind was if we begin within the U.S. offshore, which naturally has fairly a little bit of consideration, we nonetheless consider that the U.S. holds engaging offshore potential, and we’re for now zooming in much more particularly, totally on the Northeast, exemplified not solely by hopefully constructing three initiatives, together with a Dawn pending a constructive award in New York 4 but additionally to proceed to develop our lease space 500, which is our 4-gigawatt very engaging piece of actual property outdoors of New England and New York.

We’ve chosen to exit some offshore markets. Crucial to say offshore as a result of we nonetheless have onshore exercise in Spain. However Norway, Spain and Portugal are markets that we’re exiting. And in addition, we’re deprioritizing additional offshore growth in various markets, together with Japan. Then we have additionally taken a fairly considerably leaner method to each Energy-to-X and floating offshore wind.

That’s not as a result of we do not consider in these applied sciences or that they’re strategically unimportant, however we face our commitments, each on growth and anticipated CapEx to a slower-than-anticipated market growth.

So in essence, that signifies that our commitments, each when it comes to capability, but additionally when it comes to the CapEx commitments we’re planning in direction of 2030, is now at a decrease degree as an consequence of that portfolio evaluation pushed by this growth of the market that’s slower. And eventually, as we’ll come again to a not least Rasmus, we’re accelerating our partnership and divestment program.

If we flip particularly to the U.S., let me solely converse to the left-hand facet of this slide. What are a few of the extra particular outcomes? Most of them I commented already is we have now withdrawn our Skipjack OREC settlement, in shut dialogue with the state of Maryland and with help, and we are actually investigating probably the most value-creating monitor ahead on that asset. We’ve submitted the OREC re-bid for New York, and we have now made the settlement with Eversource a few conditional take over of the venture. That’s in case of an constructive award of the venture.

In case of a destructive award, that we are going to nonetheless have an intact three way partnership, that means a threat sharing with our accomplice, Eversource.

We are going to proceed to develop our seabed leases in direction of the permits in order that that is one thing that, in any occasion, will increase the worth of these belongings. We are going to selectively and opportunistically pursue engaging offtake alternatives. So we are going to consider what are a few of the upcoming alternatives that come when it comes to auctions. However below the very clear situation that these are precisely some auctions that permit the very restricted pre-FID capital commitments. In any other case, they don’t seem to be engaging to us.

However we’re comfortable to see that not solely has New York and New Jersey proven public sale outcomes with lifelike costs for offshore energy, however we’re additionally seeing that the final three auctions that both have been performed or have been launched do have inflation safety between award and FID, which is critically essential for our sustained dedication to the U.S. offshore market.

After which we are going to perhaps clearly proceed to look at very intently for what are the circumstances below which we function. So is it political help, is that the help regimes of the federal incentives, the allowing regime is that also intact? And in addition to look at that we see continued lifelike offtake costs. However total, a targeted portfolio within the U.S. offshore, however nonetheless I consider that it is a market that provides engaging alternatives that we are going to clearly very selectively look into.

Turning in direction of our CapEx program. As I briefly talked about, on a like-for-like foundation, these two — roughly DKK270 billion is roughly a 1/3 discount in comparison with what we introduced on the Capital Markets Day. The break up between applied sciences is roughly unchanged. So round 70% for offshore, which stays by far a very powerful strategic precedence for the Firm, despite the fact that we strategically are nonetheless very snug with being an organization that’s on a number of applied sciences, together with photo voltaic, battery expertise, offshore and onshore wind.

And if we flip that into what’s the penalties for our capability? Properly, the important thing message on this overview that sums as much as the roughly 35 to 38 gigawatts of put in capability is what we consider is a extremely wholesome stability between excessive visibility of investments and earnings attributable to greater than 25 gigawatts being both in operation or below development. And as I discussed, in our offshore portfolio below development with initiatives which can be delivering the returns that we goal.

However on the similar time, we additionally take pleasure in what we consider is an efficient flexibility of those 11 to 14 gigawatts of extra capability. So due to this fact, having the flexibleness to deploy capital to probably the most value-accretive alternatives which can be there. Proper now, we estimate it to be break up roughly 50-50 between onshore and offshore, however that is one thing the place we clearly nonetheless have a flexibility. And if we then dive slightly bit deeper into offshore, then we have now 15.5 gigawatts of operational and awarded capability. And by the best way, the 6.7 gigawatts of below development capability is probably the most that this firm has ever had and likewise greater than every other developer on the planet.

So we’re snug that despite the fact that we have now a plan with a unique degree than we introduced eight months in the past, that our offshore management remains to be sturdy.

We do have 3.7 gigawatts of awarded capability, however we nonetheless take into account that versatile as a result of we have now not but taken FID on these initiatives. And that additionally signifies that, for instance, for Baltica 3, if we resolve this isn’t a value-accretive alternative that delivers the returns we’d like, we see a major alternative to get that in different auctions. We highlighted a few named auctions akin to Hornsea 4, which in mild of the extra — way more lifelike administered to strike costs in AR6 within the U.Okay. and certain additionally AR7 is one thing the place there’s a possibility for, we consider, for wholesome worth creation.

And likewise, given the higher body circumstances within the upcoming Taiwanese public sale the place we did not bid within the final one. Additionally, Changhua 3 is a chance that we expect may very well be sturdy. However we have not determined that but as a result of out of these 2, but additionally out of the effectively over 20 gigawatts of comparatively near-term upcoming solicitations coming, we are going to merely choose those that delivers probably the most worth and has the very best threat return perspective.

So total, an estimated 20 to 22 gigawatts of put in offshore capability. And on onshore, that is the place we have now 6.4 gigawatts of operational below development. Right here, you’ll as a result of a lot shorter CapEx cycles, you will notice that what remains to be forward of us is the next share naturally. However that is additionally an space the place we have now not solely very engaging pipelines of near 30 gigawatts and a few sturdy and skilled regional groups, we even have, which was significantly essential in very risky markets, a market the place the hyperlink between CapEx value ranges and offtake value ranges is far shorter, so one thing that primarily derisks the business realities of those initiatives. However an estimated 5 to seven being secured with type of a proportional break up between Europe and the U.S.

And summing up, earlier than I hand over to Rasmus, this all results in these up to date steering targets, which I already talked about at first, however let me reiterate them. An unchanged industry-leading value-creating goal of 150 to 300 foundation factors unfold to WACC, common 14% return on capital employed. And please take a look at the form of those curves, nonetheless with a major development with effectively over twice as a lot put in capability as we have now at this time being put in by 2030, so 35 to 38 gigawatts. After which an EBITDA development of those — with the sturdy place to begin of ’23, 8% common to DKK39 billion to DKK43 billion or DKK1 billion.

And with that, let me hand over to you, Rasmus.

Rasmus Errboe

Additionally a heat welcome and good afternoon from me to all people. For the subsequent half-hour or so, I’ll take you thru 4 issues. To start with, I’ll discuss our earnings outcomes for 2023. Then I’ll undergo briefly the outlook for 2024. Then I’ll spend the majority of my time speaking about our short-term marketing strategy, so mainly ’24 to ’26.

After which lastly, I’ll discuss slightly bit about our long-term financials.

Regardless of the numerous challenges we have now had within the U.S. and that Mads has additionally talked about, 2023 was truly a comparatively sturdy yr in relation to the underlying efficiency of our enterprise around the globe. Our EBITDA got here in at DKK24 billion, which was DKK1 billion above the steering that we had put out of [DKK20 billion to DKK23 billion] and likewise DKK3 billion above what we did in 2022.

In case you take the principle drivers behind the consequence. To start with, our websites EBITDA. So from our offshore enterprise that we take a look at lots got here in at DKK20.2 billion. This was a major enhance, as you possibly can see, relative to 2022 with the principle driver clearly being that we did not have, you possibly can say, the extraordinary hedging results in ’23 that we noticed in ’22. But additionally pushed by that we noticed the ramp-up that we want to see from our underlying offshore wind enterprise, so with Hornsea 2 ramping up and likewise Changhua 1 and 2a.

We additionally had a yr with barely increased wind speeds than we had in 2022, though nonetheless beneath what we name a standard wind yr. On our present partnerships, the yr got here in at DKK900 million, so down DKK400 million from 2022. Fundamental driver behind the DKK900 million was that we noticed some one-off results in This fall. We reversed provisions associated to wake and warranties on our — on a few our farm-down agreements.

On onshore, we ended the yr at DKK3 billion additionally — or barely decrease than what we noticed in 2022. Fundamental drivers being the decrease costs that we noticed, particularly within the U.Okay., but additionally the U.S. after which barely decrease availability within the U.S. On the a part of our earnings combine that we name Bioenergy and Different, we noticed a considerably decrease EBITDA contribution in ’23 relative to ’22 from our CHPs. In fact, right here additionally pushed by the truth that ’23 was a extra regular yr.

So we are saying it was the decrease energy costs, but additionally that we had this comparatively excessive gasoline value going into the unfold that we talked lots about within the final quarters.

Transferring on to the outlook for 2024. So the steering that we come out with at this time is that we anticipate EBITDA in 2024 to be between DKK23 billion and DKK26 billion. So the midpoint of DKK24.5 billion, which is barely above our earnings in ’23, once more, which was a comparatively good yr on the underlying efficiency. If we take the largest drivers that we anticipate throughout the yr. To start with, on our websites EBITDA, additionally right here, we’re happy to see and that we anticipate that to go up throughout the yr with DKK1.5 billion, once more, pushed by the ramp-up of our offshore enterprise, once more, with Changhua 1 and 2a, but additionally South Fork within the U.S. and Gode Wind 3 in Germany.

On our present partnerships, we do not anticipate to see these one-off results that I discussed earlier than on reversal of provisions, which is why we anticipate decrease earnings in 2024 relative to ’23. On what we name DEVEX and Different, there are two results to be conscious of. To start with, we have now a one-off impact on this quantity from our inner hours — our inner time spent on in relation to the cancellation and the wind down of Ocean Wind 1. That is one thing for accounting causes can not soak up your provision, so that may influence our 2024 earnings.

Then we additionally have an impact the place we have now determined to be a bit extra — much more prudent on the best way we resolve to expense our DEVEX from our overhead. So due to this fact, additionally doing slightly bit extra expensing and however not one thing that’s pushed by underlying change in our value base. We anticipate a major ramp-up from our onshore enterprise in 2024, pushed by 4 photo voltaic farms approaching stream within the U.S. After which lastly, on our Bioenergy and Different, we do anticipate DKK500 million extra in ’24, mainly taking that a part of our enterprise all the way down to — again to what we will name a extra normalized degree additionally from a pricing perspective.

Shifting gears, going into the short-term marketing strategy. So primarily based on the occasions that Mads has talked about, we have now spent fairly a little bit of time our capital allocation rules. And we have now three key capital allocation rules for us nonetheless behind me. And we have now mainly determined to revise two out of the three. So if we take our FFO to internet debt first.

With this plan, we goal an FFO to internet debt of above 30%, which is commensurate with a stable investment-grade score. That is up from the edge of 25% that we confirmed on the Capital Markets Day.

And we do that as a result of we recognize the perceived enhance in threat from the businesses for offshore wind as an {industry}, but additionally for us extra particularly. We’ve an excellent dialogue with the score businesses, a superb and constructive dialogue. And it isn’t for me at this time to touch upon whether or not or not we will likely be downgraded one notch. However what I can say is that ought to that occur, then we’d, after all, nonetheless have a stable investment-grade score as we goal right here at this time.

And simply to be completely clear that the plan we’re placing ahead at this time doesn’t depend on a particular score of BBB+ or Baa-. We’d be capable of abdomen that with the plan that we’re placing ahead at this time. Additionally on the capital construction and the metrics, we consider that we have now, with this, discovered the appropriate stability between a strong stability sheet and precious development. So we consider that this metric that we’re placing out at this time with a goal above 30% is the appropriate degree for Ørsted.

On dividends, we have now determined, as Mads additionally talked about, to pause dividends for ’23, ’24 and ’25. So with payout within the yr after. And we have now a goal to reinstate dividends for the yr 2026. So we’ll pay out in 2027. We absolutely recognize and acknowledge the significance of paying out dividends to our shareholders.

However we do consider that within the scenario we’re in as an organization that in an effort to get the best diploma of short-term visibility on our earnings on this vital time frame between ’24 and ’26, we consider {that a} dividend pause is the appropriate factor for us to do. However as I mentioned, we goal to reinstate dividend once more from ’26 and onwards.

Lastly, on worth creation. So that is the half that you may say haven’t modified. We do consider, although, that with this plan, we’re much more assured in our skill to proceed to ship our industry-leading value-creating goal that has additionally talked about. And once more, this instance that Mads talked about that really 5.8 of the 6.7 gigawatts in our offshore constructed portfolio, European and APAC sits inside our guided vary as of at this time.

With these capital allocation rules in thoughts, we have now taken a really complete take a look at our short-term marketing strategy, and we’re placing in movement the next modifications. To start with, we have now determined to cut back our CapEx with DKK35 billion relative to the quantity that we put out on the Capital Markets Day for this time period from ’24 to ’26. We — there are three drivers on this. There are clearly the venture cancellations of Ocean Wind, for example, but additionally the reprioritization that Mads talked about, the examples of markets after which lastly, phasing of CapEx. One phrase on phasing.

The way in which we take into consideration our offshore wind initiatives are that on the finish of the day, whereas we, after all, goal and take into consideration a sure yr for a COD, on the finish of the day what actually issues for us is the worth. So whether or not a venture is coming in ’28 or ’29 just isn’t vital for us.

What actually issues is that we ship the venture in the absolute best manner from a price perspective. That additionally signifies that we have now fairly a little bit of flexibility in our portfolio when it comes to phasing CapEx. On our farm-down program, we’re accelerating {that a} bit relative to what we assumed on the Capital Markets Day, which signifies that we anticipate round DKK15 billion of proceeds extra in this time period than what we assumed on the Capital Markets Day. I’ll come again to that in way more element.

On DEVEX, we have now additionally right here made a major discount. So we have now decreased our DEVEX from ’24 to ’26 in whole of DKK3 billion. After which lastly, on mounted value, we decide to lowering our mounted value base by DKK1 billion with full yr impact in 2026 relative to ’23 on a like-for-like foundation. So clearly, the factors that Mads talked about earlier at this time on redundancies is, after all, a part of this — a part of our up to date marketing strategy.

Transferring on to the right-hand facet and some phrases extra particularly about our score metric. The charts listed here are, after all, illustrative. And the start line is, as you possibly can see, the 29% FFO to adjusted internet debt that you may see in our annual report at this time. The motion that you just then see is that in 2024, we are going to see a major drop, clearly, in our FFO as a result of cancellation charges. After which from there on, we anticipate FFO to extend steadily over this time period.

And on the similar time, we anticipate our adjusted internet debt, you possibly can say, from a excessive level in ’24 to remain roughly steady, barely lowering in this time period. These developments deliver us to anticipate that our FFO to internet debt will likely be considerably beneath 30% in 2024. We anticipate it to be round 30% in 2025 after which we anticipate for it to be comfortably above 30% in 2026. The underlying drivers behind this growth is, after all, additionally on the web debt facet, the dimensions of the CapEx program, the dimensions of the divestment program, but additionally very a lot the strong underlying money flows from our enterprise.

Transferring then on nonetheless throughout the short-term marketing strategy, a number of phrases on our anticipated gigawatt development in this time period. So there are two takeaways, I believe, on this slide. To start with, that regardless of the modifications we’re making at this time, we’re nonetheless rising with greater than 50% in this time period when it comes to our put in gigawatts. And secondly, 2/3 of that’s coming from belongings which can be already below development throughout offshore and onshore. So it’s all the initiatives that Mads talked about earlier than, apart from Hornsea 3, which is COD in 2027.

So not a part of this buildup. However all of the others are from an offshore perspective.

After which we have not awarded bucket right here of 2-gigawatt, the place half of that’s Dawn. So ought to we resolve to maneuver ahead with that venture on the again of a profitable consequence of New York 4, then we’d have solely 1-gigawatt of onshore left that we — within the awarded a part of our buildup in direction of 2026. By way of investments, once more, offering you with a bit extra element than we’d usually do for this time period. We’ve an funding program, as mentioned, of DKK130 billion in this time period, gross investments.

If we take them bucket by bucket. So we anticipate to spend DKK57 billion on our offshore wind farms below development. In order Mads talked about, it is a bucket, to me, with a really excessive diploma of certainty with enough contingencies the place we have now been by the very detailed evaluation over the approaching months. So it is a bucket that I anticipate to mainly be very near what I am displaying you right here with a excessive diploma of certainty.

The subsequent bucket is the DKK35 billion on our offshore awarded portfolio. So that is Baltica 2, Baltica 3 and Dawn. This can be a totally different mind-set, you possibly can say. As Mads additionally mentioned, as an example, Baltica 3 is right here. This can be a venture that we set on the Capital Markets Day we’re reconfiguring that also stands.

And there’s a state of affairs the place we do not transfer ahead as a result of we do not see the worth creation. However that’s what we have now assumed within the quantity that we’re shifting these initiatives ahead with DKK35 billion in this time period.

Then we have now put aside DKK5 billion for different alternatives inside offshore. That may very well be Hornsea 4. It may very well be Changhua 3. It may very well be a centralized European tender. Clearly, initiatives with a COD manner later than what I confirmed earlier than in 2026, however nonetheless initiatives the place we have now a little bit of headroom to take a position additionally on this time line.

On onshore, you see DKK25 billion right here. That is, to me, totally different. So right here, you solely have DKK5 billion below development. So DKK5 billion that has locked in associated to, as an example, the 4 U.S. photo voltaic farms that I discussed earlier than.

After which you have got DKK20 billion in your pipeline. So these are initiatives that we have now not but, you possibly can say, locked in the place we have now not but FID-ied. So additionally the place we have now a comparatively excessive diploma of flexibility additionally from a CapEx deployment perspective, however the place we’re very assured in our skill to ship this on the again of the onshore pipeline throughout Europe and U.S. that Mads confirmed earlier than.

After which lastly, we plan to spend round DKK8 billion on P2X and Bioenergy in this time period. The results of that is the EBITDA — anticipated EBITDA growth that you may see right here. So ’24 — ’23 and ’24, I talked about. On ’26, the best way to consider it right here is that we have now a excessive diploma of visibility on this quantity, despite the fact that out in time. To start with, roughly DKK30 billion of the EBITDA in 2026, we anticipate will come from belongings which can be at this time both in operation or below development.

Secondly, in case you simply take — hyperlink this to the wind farms we have now talked about of the entire 6.7-gigawatt of offshore, apart from Hornsea 3, which can are available ’27, and apart from Dawn below the awarded that may probably come throughout 2026, all the opposite wind farms that Mads talked about which can be below development could have full yr results in 2026 on this quantity. Appreciating that Changhua 2b and 4, as Mads talked about, this within the type of squeezed a bit within the again finish of 2025. So a excessive diploma of visibility.

Farm-downs. it is a matter that I really feel strongly for. We’ve labored with farm-downs in Ørsted for greater than a decade. We developed this mannequin a very long time in the past, and it’s an integral a part of the best way we do enterprise. It’s not one thing that we have now invented for the day. That is one thing we have now been doing daily for a decade.

After we take a look at our farm-downs, we mainly at all times take a look at three totally different components after we assess whether or not or to not transfer ahead with the farm-down. We take a look at worth creation, we take a look at threat diversification and we take a look at capital recycling. Particularly on worth creation, we have now taken prudent assumptions within the plan that we’re placing ahead. Robustness is essential, which signifies that there’ll probably be farm-down on this program the place we could have an NPV retention beneath 100, in case you return to earlier numbers.

However what we decide to is that for its and — all and each farm down, we anticipate to — for them to be accretive from a returns perspective. On the right-hand facet of the slide, we have now listed 2, you possibly can say, buckets of how we do farm-downs. First, there’s the normal manner, the place we go from 100% to 50%. Usually, we proactively consolidate. And we will do it both as a EPC ramp round FID or we will do it as a shared threat the place we take the partnering barely earlier.

Examples of this within the plan can be Hornsea 3. It might be Changhua 4 and likewise U.S. onshore. U.S. onshore will probably not be extensively consolidated although.

The opposite bucket of this system is the place we’re doing issues barely totally different from what we have now executed earlier than. So it is a bucket the place we assume that we — the place we’re exploring going beneath 50%. So very prone to 25%. I’ve listed three examples that we have now assumed within the plan the place we are going to do that. It’s Revolution Wind, it’s South Fork and likewise West of West of Duddon Sands on the West Coast of the U.Okay.

Once more, after we take a look at this, we take a look at all of the criterias on the left and assess the place to go to 50%, the place to go to 25%. And these are examples, as an example, within the U.S. the place we consider that from — additionally from a regional footprint and likewise a threat perspective that it is a good assumption for us. There may also be components of the plan the place we might go all the best way to 0, as an example, a lease or the like, however that’s not a really huge a part of our program.

By way of proceeds and the magnitude of this. So the overall anticipated proceeds from ’24 to ’26 is, as you possibly can see, between DKK70 billion to DKK80 billion, which is up from what we have now been doing within the final three years. We’ve put the quantity right here simply to offer you a way of the magnitudes. Once more, prone to belaboring the purpose, we’re very effectively superior on many of those farm-downs, which can be why we’re assured placing out a comparatively agency quantity right here.

In order we converse, we have now 12 ongoing dialogues from early to very superior dialogues we have now began additionally effectively earlier than the CMD and the place we have now an excellent feeling for the best way ahead. Lastly, a number of phrases on the long-term financials. So the DKK130 billion all the best way to the left right here I’ve talked about. So that is the bucket with a comparatively excessive diploma of certainty, contingencies, but additionally some flexibility in elements of that bucket.

The DKK140 billion is, to me, a unique story. That’s from ’27 to 2030. That is the place we have now a really excessive diploma of flexibility the place we might be razor sharp and going for the appropriate and most value-creating gigawatts in this time period within the again finish of the last decade. After which the third level on this slide and the final one can be, Mads additionally confirmed this, however simply reiterating that we are going to proceed to deploy the overwhelming majority of our CapEx into offshore wind.

The plan we’re making — we’re presenting at this time just isn’t a strategic shift. We’ve revised the plan, however the basic strategic view we have now is unchanged and likewise the break up between applied sciences, as you possibly can see. Lastly, on the sources and makes use of, and once more, evaluating a bit to the Capital Markets Day. So if we take the sources column first. On the Capital Markets Day, we assumed that 40% of our sources would come from money flows from operations.

On this adjusted plan, the quantity is 50%. In different phrases, we rely extra on our comparatively protected underlying money circulate below the sources half.

On partnerships and divestments, the 35%, that’s the program that I talked about earlier than. So in the entire interval in direction of 2030, that’s DKK115 billion, break up with DKK70 billion to DKK80 billion within the first time frame. In case you examine it to the Capital Markets Day, it’s on common DKK16 billion of proceeds in this time period. On the CMD, the quantity was DKK20 billion. So it’s a smaller program.

And on tax fairness, we assume 10% of our sources to return right here. On the Capital Markets Day, we assumed 15% of a considerably increased quantity. So right here, we are literally going beneath 15% of the proceeds that we assumed on the Capital Markets Day from tax fairness. Not as a result of we do not consider within the tax fairness market in any manner we do, we’re effectively superior within the initiatives we have now. Revolution Wind, for example, however just because additionally on account of the portfolio choices we have now taken within the U.S.

After which the final level on the sources facet, we aren’t counting on exterior debt to even near the identical extent on this plan relative to the one which we introduced on the Capital Markets Day. The truth is, we do not anticipate to problem senior debt till 2028 on this interval of — below this plan, which is, once more, a really totally different assumption relative to the Capital Markets Day. After which on the gross investments, the DKK270 billion that Mads talked about. After which once more, on hybrid coupons and dividends, roughly DKK50 billion right here assumed, break up roughly equal between dividends on the one hand facet to our shareholders after which hybrid coupon funds and minority dividends on the opposite facet. And once more, the underlying assumption is that we are going to reinstate dividend in 2027 for the accounting yr ’26.

With that, I’ll hand it again to Mads to wrap it up.

Mads Nipper

Thanks lots, Rasmus. Sure, and I’ll do this in an expedient manner we wish to get to your questions. However let me simply sum up what’s the scenario. We’ve introduced which coming from a really challenged yr, the place we clearly take accountability for the numerous antagonistic developments that we all know have been painful. We’re in an {industry} that we’re satisfied will likely be engaging, and we’re seeing some actually sturdy indicators that offshore might effectively be on its manner again to turn out to be an much more scalable {industry}.

We’re and can stay, regardless of the decrease ambition, a transparent {industry} chief. We’ve put ahead a plan that we consider could be very lifelike. It’s a value-creating plan and it’s a plan the place we have now realized from the occasions to additionally higher and extra proactively handle the dangers that may nonetheless be an inherent a part of working in our {industry}. We’re satisfied that {our capability} set, regardless of a difficult yr, each on EPC on farm-downs and different, completely vital elements of being profitable within the {industry} are nonetheless clearly industry-leading, and we’re adjusting and adapting our working fashions and slimming our firm to be much more targeted on leveraging these capabilities. After which final however not least, the standard of the pipeline and the chance set.

So each the proprietary belongings that we have now in core and excessive potential markets, but additionally the chance set to be extra selective on the place are probably the most value-creating alternatives is one thing we consider stays very engaging each in direction of 2030, but additionally past.

And with that, allow us to rearrange up right here and get your questions. Thanks.

Query-and-Reply Session

A – Rasmus Haervig

[Operator Instructions] So with out additional ado, we will soar into questions and perhaps we will begin right here within the entrance with a query from perhaps Kristian Tornøe.

Kristian Tornøe

Kristian Tornøe, SEB. Mads, in your presentation, when reflecting on the issues with Ocean Wind 1, you mentioned that you want to safe set up capability earlier. However then you definitely additionally say that you’re not going to tie up capital earlier than FID to the identical extent. To me, it sounds barely contradictionary. So are you able to simply elaborate on how one can stability these two components?

Mads Nipper

Sure, and thanks, Kristian. And sorry if I am — if I — that was the best way I expressed it. So guaranteeing set up capability earlier just isn’t the case. That’s one thing we’re doing in case we see an below development on already awarded venture runs into challenges. That’s after we — that’s the place we are going to proactively be certain that we both lengthen or e book new set up capability in case there’s a brisk of a slip.

However we’re ready as a result of we are going to prioritize initiatives that has a extra versatile COD deadline. We are literally ready to take much less agency capability secured in an effort to get a decrease capital dedication at FID than we did earlier than. So pardon me, if I left that impression since you’re completely proper, these can be very tough to me.

Rasmus Haervig

Nice. We’ll simply take the subsequent query from the dial-ins. So operator.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And we do have a query from Harry Wyburd from BNB Paribas Exane.

Harry Wyburd

I am going to clearly hold it to 1. Can I ask why did you finally resolve to go down the dividend and price cuts and CapEx lower bundle slightly than the capital increase bundle? And I suppose, you guys barely towards the grain of the backward-looking scenario. However I suppose {industry} fundamentals are displaying some indicators of enhancing. How a lot headroom do you have got if a few of the extra alternatives that you just talked about within the presentation, Hornsea 4 and most of the different auctions?

How a lot headroom do you have got if these show to be extra considerable and engaging alternatives than you’d anticipated? So do you have got some room within the stability sheet perhaps after ’24/’25 to see extra aggressively a few of these alternatives? Or would you successfully instantly have to return to elevating capital in case you wished to broaden the expansion on the like?

Mads Nipper

Sure. Thanks lots, Harry. So why we selected this route? We’ve evaluated a number of totally different situations for what’s each the very best plan when it comes to dimension of the plan, but additionally when it comes to what are the levers that we will pull. And we did, after all, assess all alternatives and got here to the comparatively clear conclusion that with this route of CapEx, OpEx, DEVEX phasing and financial savings, with the dividend vacation and with additionally an accelerated farm-down program that this was a extra engaging route than elevating recent fairness.

There won’t be any of the — there won’t be a limitation that we’d have needed to increase new fairness to bid into new alternatives. We nonetheless take into account that with this 5- to 7-gigawatt flexibility that we have now in offshore that we can go for probably the most value-accretive alternatives. And despite the fact that you are completely proper, we’re seeing good indicators within the {industry} that they’re turning into extra lifelike costs, we do consider that is precisely the appropriate plan that may make us capable of choose probably the most engaging alternatives slightly than leaping on to accelerating development. So we’re sticking and can stick agency to the plan we have now and to easily choosing probably the most value-accretive initiatives that we have now.

Rasmus Haervig

Excellent. I believe we will take a query from the room within the entrance.

Lars Heindorff

Sure. Lars Heindorff from Nordea. It is a lot appreciated you have been extra clear now about each the CapEx program and significantly, I believe the influence on the farm-down so we will do some gross and internet calculations. However on the EBITDA goal for 2030 to DKK39 billion to DKK43 billion, what would that be in case you do not do any farm-downs?

Rasmus Errboe

As I am positive you’d recognize that’s not a quantity that I’ll offer you as a result of the steering that we gave, Lars, is together with present partnerships, as you recognize. So we have now not taken within the new partnership. So in case you had been to do a giant farm-down in 2030, that will not be a part of it. However we do not information individually with or with out present partnerships. I believe a superb — the info level that I gave you on 2026, I believe, can be useful the place I mainly mentioned that roughly DKK30 billion is excluding present partnerships.

So we gave you slightly little bit of a one-off on that one to be very clear in regards to the ’24 to ’26 time frame.

Rasmus Haervig

Nice. The subsequent query we are going to take is from the dial-in, operator?

Operator

Subsequent query comes from Deepa Venkateswaran from Bernstein.

Deepa Venkateswaran

I suppose my one query is your accelerated divestments. Beforehand, for farm-down, you have got the precept of sustaining NPV neutrality. Now you have lowered that to say it must be return accretive, which clearly would — any farm-down can be. So I am simply questioning whether or not the shift is as a result of your program is greater now? Is it due to the rate of interest atmosphere?

And is there a barely increased threat on this plan? I imply, simply the dimensions of divestment is increased relative to the outdated one. So how would you — perhaps give us a bit extra reassurance as a result of I believe that is the one a part of the plan, which perhaps is barely totally different from the outdated one? I believe all the opposite measures appear very clearly lowering threat.

Mads Nipper

Thanks very a lot, Deepa. And you might be proper that we have now beforehand talked about, you possibly can say, round 100. However keep in mind that that is solely one of many metrics that we take a look at after we do the farm downs. That has at all times been the case. So we’re additionally — we’re capital recycling and we are also threat sharing.

And when it comes to the general, you possibly can say, threat to this system. I might argue that the chance has not gone up on this system relative to what we assumed on the Capital Markets Day.

The truth is, I might argue that there’s extra certainty on our skill to ship on this program. It’s objectively smaller. You’re — I noticed your notice. You’re, after all, proper that type of the ratio between gross and internet funding is altering slightly bit right here as a result of we do speed up within the front-end years, however it isn’t a much bigger program, and we have now — with the flexibleness we have now given ourselves additionally on, in some circumstances, going to 25%, we have now a really excessive diploma of flexibility in this system in order that we will go for probably the most value-accretive alternatives and likewise after all right throughout the parameters we have now set alongside the best way.

Rasmus Haervig

Thanks. One other query coming from dial-ins.

Operator

The subsequent query comes from Rob Pulleyn from Morgan Stanley.

Rob Pulleyn

I hoped you would simply evaluation the Slide 8 when it comes to what went flawed. And the important thing query right here is, might you elaborate what occurred within the threat administration such that you just appear to have two very late seen disappointments from suppliers on foundations and vessels throughout 2023, which, after all, was very shocking for a developer with such a robust monitor report, akin to yourselves?

And secondly, and once more, constructing on the feedback you made with the slides, maybe in case you would, what additional confidence are you able to give everybody available in the market that no matter went flawed, final time, the chance administration with the availability chain won’t be repeated? This appears successfully vital to, after all, the long run supply of all of those initiatives, particularly these in new markets just like the U.S.

Mads Nipper

Sure. Thanks very a lot, Rob. You are proper that, I imply, on the time and over the summer season, we knew that Ocean Wind 1 was a venture that had already suffered most of the headwinds and was uncovered to a schedule the place we had been — the place we — which was already below stress. However on the time after we obtained the data that first 20 monopiles after which a major extra delay on a vessel, this was one thing which was a brand new info to us. And that’s the place we’re saying these had been — the monopile facility was new.

However throughout the conversations we have had with the provider, we weren’t led to consider that this was an influence that was prone to occur to this scale. After which I believe what we — the place we’re studying is that when this stuff occur on the similar time, and they don’t seem to be blaming any suppliers as a result of that’s the place we have to replace our threat administration framework is precisely to simulate what occurs if we have now a vessel delay and a basis delay just about concurrently.

And that is what we are actually considerably upgrading and doing it additionally effectively earlier than it’s probably that we’d have the visibility of claiming, if this occurs, then we have now the power to mitigate these. And I believe the instance that we’re doing now in Dawn pending a constructive consequence of New York 4, the place we’re proactively descoping from 84 to twenty-eight monopiles despite the fact that the provider says that we’re nonetheless — we nonetheless consider within the plan. That is an instance of how we’re studying from that, despite the fact that it comes at an extra value, which can be why we have elevated the contingencies. So that is an instance.

And if I perceive your second query appropriately, that’s precisely how we’ll keep away from these. So a mixture of simulating what’s going to occur if a few of these huge dangers occur, each worse, but additionally extra concurrently than what we had assumed in our earlier threat register. And on prime of that, then to extra proactively, say, in higher time when the capability for reserving backup or mitigation capability remains to be there, what’s it we will do and at what value does that come?

That’s the reason we consider you need to be extra snug in an {industry} the place we can’t faux that it is absolutely steady or with out dangers. It’s not all people who says one thing totally different just isn’t telling the reality, however it’s about how can we up our threat administration to way more proactively deal with conditions which can be nonetheless, in lots of circumstances, risky.

Rasmus Haervig

We’ll take one other query from the dial-in, operator?

Operator

The subsequent query comes from Alberto Gandolfi from Goldman Sachs.

Alberto Gandolfi

I’ve a query in two elements be convoluted. However I used to be making an attempt to know a bit extra intimately the connection between FFO CapEx and EBITDA. If I am not mistaken, your FFO in ’24, ’26 goes to be pretty much like your CapEx and also you pay no dividend. So am I proper in understanding the free money circulate? I imply, the Firm’s free money circulate destructive be it, however we should always not anticipate a significant enhance within the internet debt by 2026?

In case you might present the online debt steering, you’ll in all probability finish the talk right here as a result of I believe the consensus quantity you despatched round have 100 — greater than DKK100 billion for internet debt for 2026 in consensus. I believe that will likely be a lot much less. In order that’s the primary a part of the query.

The second a part of the query, it appears to me that the EBITDA steering discount is lower than proportional to the CapEx discount. So might you perhaps elaborate on what energy value assumption you used? And or are you merely giving in on the least worthwhile initiatives, and due to this fact, what you might be growing has higher returns and that explains why the EBITDA would not go down as a lot because the CapEx?

Mads Nipper

Thanks very a lot, Alberto. So if we take them one after the other, you might be actually proper that I assume you might be referring to the adjusted internet debt used for the FFO to internet debt metric. You’re actually proper that DKK100 billion in 2026 is off. We will likely be — we — the underlying — in case you take a look at the chart, the underlying results of what we’re placing ahead right here when it comes to money flows will likely be that we anticipate to be roughly internet money circulate impartial in this time period.

So in case you take a look at the gross investments and in case you take a look at the divestment program and in case you take a look at our underlying FFO from our EBITDA, that will likely be roughly impartial expectedly in this time period for ’24 to ’26, which can then clearly have the impact that you’ll not see a enhance in adjusted internet debt in 2026. We anticipate it to be barely decrease than what we could have in 2024. In your level on EBITDA steering, you might be proper. And you might be additionally proper in your assumption that this isn’t us who’ve basically modified our view on energy costs for example. That is us mainly having checked out our complete portfolio after which you possibly can say being left with very most strong initiatives additionally from a price perspective.

Rasmus Haervig

Nice. We’ve a query from the room.

Lars Heindorff

Lars Heindorff from Nordea. Query relating to, I believe, Mads you mentioned in your presentation that you’ve got been going by the whole provide chain. And one of many belongings you talked about was that when it comes to set up vessels, you have got a set beginning date and you’ve got an open ending date. These vessels would not come low-cost nowadays. What does that do to the price of these initiatives?

Does which have any influence on the CapEx per megawatt spend or something later.

Mads Nipper

No, it doesn’t, Lars. What has an extra value, and in lots of circumstances, additionally a that means extra — a significant extra value is within the scenario the place we, for instance, with Revolution, we even have two parallel contracts. So we have now a contract with a Jones Act-compliant vessel, which we do not have certainty as to after we will get. Sadly, we all know it is delayed, however we nonetheless do not have a set certainty.

So we have truly needed to now — we have now chosen to now contract the total scope with an extra vessel that, after all, prices some huge cash. However negotiating these contracts is often additionally being nonetheless by far the largest contractor right here is one thing we will do at comparatively restricted value and likewise guaranteeing for threat administration functions that we aren’t the primary ones to get it which has been painful within the U.S.

Rasmus Haervig

Nice. Operator, one other on-line query.

Operator

The subsequent query comes from Peter Bisztyga from Financial institution of America.

Peter Bisztyga

So I simply wished to ask about U.S. coverage threat. The market is clearly involved in regards to the potential influence of one other Trump Administration, the Republicans have been fairly vocal about desirous to repeal elements of the IRA in regards to the pointless help for type of mature applied sciences like onshore and photo voltaic. We additionally know from the earlier Trump Administration that there are a number of bureaucratic obstacles thrown in the best way of offshore wind, which he clearly would not just like the expertise. So I simply wish to hear slightly bit about how you have got considered that in your type of threat administration course of and evaluation given that really you continue to have various your forward-looking CapEx, each onshore and offshore in that area?

Mads Nipper

Sure. Thanks lots, Peter. So most significantly, as a result of the Trump has been fairly vocal about his dislike for offshore wind. A few feedback to that. And the place we have now put most focus is in guaranteeing that of the awarded portfolio, together with a possible Dawn constructive consequence, that there is no such thing as a threat to a scenario that was like what we discovered ourselves below the earlier administration, that Bureau of Ocean Power Administration was nearly journey of sources and, due to this fact, near a stand nonetheless on allowing.

We could have the required federal permits in place, which we take into account the largest threat in case of a Trump administration. And by the best way, the help within the states that we’re prioritizing are all blue states with important momentum and ever elevated ambitions behind offshore and likewise our willingness to pay the worth. So most significantly for us is that it would not introduce a major type of retrospective threat to any of the initiatives we have now neither in onshore and offshore, and we consider that’s not the case.

By way of future initiatives, beginning once more right here additionally with offshore is that, if we find yourself bidding in may very well be, for instance, into New England, there is a mixed New England solicitation from Rhode Island and Massachusetts and Connecticut, which, by the best way, additionally all supply inflation safety. If we do this, then we’d clearly be certain that we mitigate any commitments to be proactively ready for the dangers which may come each on federal help, however particularly additionally on allowing.

And in case we do this, we may also check out how dependent can we wish to make ourselves on a few of the native tax credit for native manufacturing versus taking a extra steady international provide chain. And on onshore, like we talked about, we aren’t below any stress to quick ahead any of these choices. However ought to we be within the scenario the place towards our expectation, I might say, that there will likely be a significant — when it comes to a regime change, a significant destructive influence to the Inflation Discount Act help for onshore, we have now ample alternative to redeploy that into additionally European alternatives the place we even have a really sturdy time — the place we have now a really sturdy pipeline. So we aren’t involved in regards to the total expertise combine, and we are going to take a cautious method to make sure that we aren’t uncovered type of unnecessarily in case of a regime change.

Operator

Query comes from Mark Freshney from UBS.

Mark Freshney

Rasmus, if I might ask on the credit standing businesses, I imply, clearly, you’d have been in a robust dialogue with them in current days. And is it truthful that we will anticipate them to return out however what you mentioned about with the ability to handle BBB or function at BBB, however is it truthful to say that we will anticipate them to return out and affirm you at BBB+? And simply additional to that, I imply, clearly, slicing the dividend or previous passing the dividend for 3 years is a large constructive message to the credit score neighborhood. Are you able to roll out restoring the dividend earlier ought to your plan be exceeded or executed effectively?

Rasmus Errboe

Thanks very a lot, Mark. As mentioned, it isn’t the appropriate factor for me at this time to take a position on potential outcomes from the score businesses. As you additionally talked about, we have now had an excellent and a really strong dialogue. And naturally, each S&P and likewise Moody’s have, after all, been out forward of at this time additionally with a destructive outlook and a credit score watch on our scores. So, after all, a state of affairs the place we will likely be downgraded with one notch is, after all, an actual threat.

And as mentioned, we will abdomen that very a lot in our plan and likewise with the goal that we’re placing out going ahead the place we aren’t committing to a particular score, however we’re committing to a stable funding base score is clearly additionally, you possibly can say, it needs to be seen in that context.

By way of your query on whether or not we will — you possibly can say, resolve anyway to pay out dividends early on, that’s not our expectation. We consider for the explanations that I discussed that we profit, as an organization, from the visibility that we achieve from not paying out dividends within the interval ’24 to ’26. It’s tied to the plan that I’ve type of been by at this time. All of it mainly comes collectively in a strong plan. So that’s not our expectation in any manner.

Operator

The subsequent query comes from Jenny Ping from Citi.

Jenny Ping

Only one on Ocean Wind 1, please. You’ve got advised beforehand in regards to the DKK8 billion to DKK11 billion cancellation prices and the potential to reuse a few of the gear there in a few of the different websites that you just’re growing. Are you able to simply give us an replace on the place you have to on that? And to only gauge as to the probability risk of that quantity coming down?

Mads Nipper

Sure. Completely happy to touch upon that, Jenny. So the general conclusion is we’re nonetheless throughout the whole vary that we set ahead. So the DKK9 billion to DKK11 billion are together with what we had executed within the impairments DKK15 billion to DKK18 billion in whole cancellation prices. We’re nonetheless inside that vary.

This can be a very advanced matter to stop growth and this — to get out of those contracts, there’s a whole of roughly 270 contracts. So it is a huge endeavor for our firm.

We’re nonetheless within the midst of technically evaluating. We’ve terminated most contracts, however we’re nonetheless evaluating some and we have now one constructive instance of cables being reused in our anticipated future venture, however it isn’t proper to point something totally different than we are going to keep throughout the vary of DKK15 billion to DKK18 billion.

Rasmus Errboe

And perhaps one remark, Jenny, on the DKK8 billion to DKK11 billion additionally. So taking into consideration now that when we have now ended the yr and checked out it, we finish at an EBITDA provision of DKK9.6 billion. So that’s the half that you may say that you may examine to the DKK8 billion to DKK11 billion. After which when it comes to money out, then after all, you will notice the cash-out impact of the DKK15 billion, so the cancellation charges that presently stands at that degree, you will notice that cash-out impact throughout 2024, which is then once more what you see in our FFO to internet debt.

Operator

The subsequent query comes from James Model from Deutsche Financial institution.

James Model

I had a query on farm-downs. It may be a two parter. Firstly, you gave some examples of the farm-downs that you would do, which contain the onshore within the U.S., however then all type of new offshore initiatives or below development initiatives. Simply questioning whether or not you would take into account promoting down a much bigger stake in offshore initiatives which can be already operational? Say, a number of them you have already gone all the way down to 50%, however might you go all the way down to a 25% stake in these present onshore initiatives. That is the primary half.

And then you definitely talked about that there are two fashions for the farm-downs and the one wherein you retain all the development threat and supply ensures amongst one in every of which is share threat. Prior to now, you have been much more eager on conserving the development threat and maximizing the farm-down. Are you suggesting that you just may be extra open sooner or later to having the next proportion of farm downs the place you share the chance?

Mads Nipper

Thanks, James. To start with, your first half on whether or not we might see ourselves promoting down a much bigger stake in an working offshore wind farm. You’re proper, we might, and that’s, as an example, what we have now assumed within the plan with West of Duddon Sands, the place we go from 50% to 25%. And that may be a venture that’s within the U.S. West Coast, and we have now checked out our complete portfolio.

And for example, we consider that’s effectively suited to an additional farm-down from an accounting perspective, but additionally from an operational and strategic perspective how that ties to different belongings when it comes to how we do our enterprise. So we have now been by our complete portfolio, however you’ll not — you shouldn’t anticipate a number of that in our plan.

On the second a part of your query on, you possibly can say, the stability between shared threat and EPC rep. We’ve not assumed a basic shifts in someway relative to the place we have now been earlier than. We nonetheless consider that it’s proper for us to have each alternatives within the pocket, if you’ll. After we do our farm-down program, we take a look at the investor swimming pools, we take a look at the liquidity, we take a look at the urge for food.

And in some circumstances, in a sure market, it may be higher for us to focus on a barely increased return requirement. And that then sometimes brings you to a shared threat, which clearly then additionally signifies that the accomplice share extra of the CapEx early on and so forth. So no — there’s not a basic shift away from our rep, which we nonetheless consider, in lots of circumstances, is sensible.

Operator

And the subsequent query comes from Marc Ip from Berenberg.

Marc Ip

That is on Hornsea 3. So that you mentioned that when taking FID, it was on the low finish of the worth creation vary. And in addition perceive that, that is relying on type of uptake in AR6. Are you able to simply discuss extra across the assumptions on that call what % are that you just put that you will win and so how can we go get offtake in AR6. Does it simply fall outdoors of the worth creation vary?

Mads Nipper

Sure. I might be comfortable to touch upon that. You’ll perceive that we can not remark particularly on the assumptions that we have now taken right here. However it’s the full share that’s not coated by the CfD. And that additionally signifies that we’re assuming — we have now prudent assumptions behind it.

So we’re not leaning into aggressively. And — however we — given the brand new administrative strike value, our confidence degree that Hornsea 3 will likely be aggressive. And given the failed allocation spherical 5, we — which was at — already at [44 pounds, 45 pounds], then our degree of consolation that it will likely be with a value that’s inside our assumed worth creation is stable.

Rasmus Haervig

We’ll take the subsequent query from the room.

Kristian Tornøe

Kristian Tornøe, SEB. I assume Hornsea 3 is a reasonably large chunk of this DKK70 billion to DKK80 billion you anticipate in near-term farm-down proceeds. Are you able to assist us type of with the bottom case assumption of the timing, ought to we assume this to be in 2025 or…

Mads Nipper

Sure. I absolutely perceive the query, Kristian. And I, after all, additionally perceive that while you do your mannequin, it’s a comparatively huge deal, whether or not you place it in a single yr or the opposite. The steering I offers you on that one as a result of it’s a very, very huge chunk is that it is best to anticipate that we do it throughout 2025.

Operator

And the subsequent query comes from Ahmed Farman from Jefferies.

Ahmed Farman

My query is on Slide 9 the place you offered a really useful overview of the varied initiatives. However in your feedback, you referenced type of well timed deal with monopiles supply a number of occasions for a few initiatives. I used to be simply questioning in case you might type of give us slightly bit extra granularity on the dimensions of the problem? What’s the type of the contingency planning and the financial value related to it?

Mads Nipper

Sure. Thanks very a lot, Ahmed. Very comfortable to. So this specific provider is a Danish-based provider who’re having ramp-up challenges. The welding points that had been there are being solved.

Now it is extra the ending and the coding and so forth that is taking place. And that extra capability is being introduced on. So we have now a confidence that this isn’t a structural problem, however slightly a difficulty the place there’s a ramp-up problem the place there’s a plan that’s excellent now a comparatively stretched plan for that specific provider.

We’re seeing that different suppliers, together with type of each our present suppliers akin to Metal Wind and [high sea] but additionally new suppliers that we’re growing to have the ability to ramp up in capability is — have a really excessive diploma of solidity. So in case your underlying query is, is the structural and extra basic problem in regards to the {industry}’s skill to ramp up on monopiles? The reply is not any. However we discover ourselves in a scenario the place on that awarded portfolio till the descoping, we had a comparatively excessive focus threat, which is what we’re descoping now.

And as I discussed, below Revolution Wind, additionally guaranteeing that we prioritize those which can be most important for the well timed completion of the initiatives. By way of financial influence, this isn’t a large influence. It’s not as — as a result of if we descope, we may also change the contract with the prevailing provider, whereas if we double e book to the query — to Lars’ query from earlier than, if we double e book vessel capability, that’s costly. But when we descope from one provider to a different as a result of that provider has ramp-up challenges, there’s sometimes a comparatively marginal influence when it comes to the venture economics on these choices.

Operator

And the subsequent query comes from Klaus Kehl from Nykredit.

Klaus Kehl

First, a really, quite simple query. You discuss gross investments of DKK270 million — sorry, DKK270 billion in direction of 2030. However simply to be clear, then you definitely wish to make divestments of round DKK100 million. So the online quantity is round DKK170 million. Is that right?

Mads Nipper

Sure, DKK155 million.

Klaus Kehl

Okay. Nice. After which maybe a bit extra robust query. Clearly, you might be reducing your EBITDA steering for 2030 attributable to cancellations, but additionally attributable to this decrease energy value. And so what is the threat if the ability value drops one other 20%?

And on this context, and perhaps it’s kind of unfair to ask this query, however does it make sense to have 2030 targets on condition that you do not know what the ability value will likely be in 2030?

Mads Nipper

I will be comfortable to touch upon that. Keep in mind, Klaus, that we nonetheless, regardless of the influence on our funding capability as a result of ahead costs, the best way we function with our income line remains to be primarily to have a excessive diploma of mounted and contracted revenues. So the round — this round 80%. And despite the fact that we did change our hedging framework to go from a type of a standard five-year stair case, now we went to 1 the place relying on the ability value and the outlook to hedge someplace between 0% and 70% of the remaining shorter time period anticipated manufacturing.

We’re in a scenario the place our whole internet publicity to energy costs close to time period, so the EBITDA influence is way more restricted. And in case you take for planning functions, that we, on common, takes a hedge 50% to 60%, then the nearer-term publicity of that’s truly fairly restricted, perhaps simply within the excessive single-digit publicity of our whole income traces. Whereas in case of the remaining, it’s mounted and for almost all of it, even inflation listed.

So we’re primarily occupied with this when it comes to our funding capability. If the ahead costs come down, which is why we have now additionally inbuilt cushion with the above 30% and — from ’26 even fairly a bit, about 30% in our FFO to internet debt metrics — metric, whereas we truly do really feel comparatively snug by giving that vary for 2030 of DKK39 billion to DKK43 billion.

Rasmus Errboe

We agree. And keep in mind, as we additionally talked about that the ability costs has gone down with 40% in 2024 since our Capital Markets Day within the markets that we’re in and 30% for 2025. So it’s a comparatively dramatic lower that we have now seen within the final six months in Denmark.

David Paz

I imply, as an example, you have got DKK70 billion to DKK80 billion in ’24 to ’26. So what premiums on common are you assuming? And have you ever — I believe you specified some particular incremental farm downs past 50%, together with South Fork and Revolution. Would these be at the side of Eversource’s pending sale? Or is that separate and anticipated someday later, however earlier than 2026?

Mads Nipper

Sure. Thanks, David. Two questions. The primary one, when it comes to what we assume on premiums, that’s not one thing that we give away. As I am positive you’ll recognize inside this space if you end up type of doing M&A and are making offers, that’s, after all, very delicate info. In order a lot as I would really like, that’s not one thing I am snug freely giving.

In your touch upon Eversource whether or not our divestment of the belongings that you just talked about will likely be at the side of this? It’s not for me to touch upon Eversource’s gross sales course of. I believe they — I do know that they’ve an earnings name arising on the thirteenth of February, the place I might anticipate for them to offer an replace additionally on their ongoing processes. However we have now an excellent collaboration with them in all the things we do. And due to this fact, you possibly can, after all, assume that we have now a superb feeling each of us for what’s going on in our farm-downs.

Rasmus Haervig

All proper. Let’s take the subsequent query from the net, operator.

Operator

The subsequent query comes from Martin Tessier from Stifel.

Martin Tessier

The primary one pertains to Slide 8, the place you indicated that was to keep away from kind of your commitments and what you simply wish to face. And will you simply present us with some perhaps particular numbers when it comes to the quantity of CapEx that you just wish to spend earlier than FID? Is it 10% of the overall funding value on the venture? And second query pertains to Hornsea 3 and are attempting to safe 25% of the capability within the company PPAs. I’ve not heard something on this throughout the presentation.

So that you simply present us an replace on this matter.

Mads Nipper

Thanks, Martin. In all probability attributable to a foul connection and a type of a comparatively poor listening to, it was slightly bit tough to do your query. So please shout if I am answering a unique query than you requested. So that you’re speaking in regards to the — what proportion of CapEx would we commit forward of FID?

Martin Tessier

Precisely.

Mads Nipper

And I will not type of — I can not offer you a really particular quantity, however it will likely be considerably decreased and way more to the tune of a most of — this isn’t a threshold or any particular, however a lot, way more to the tune of 10-ish % than we’d do, for instance, on Ocean Wind 1, the place we had been at a completely totally different degree a lot nearer to 30% to 50%. So a dramatic discount. And on Hornsea 3, there was — that is the place I’ve — I consider, a larger threat of not listening to the query. So in case you heard it, Rasmus, please reply it.

Rasmus Errboe

Sure, completely. What I believe I heard, Martin, was that you just requested whether or not we expect to do company PPAs probably on 25% of Hornsea 3, is that right?

Martin Tessier

Sure, precisely.

Rasmus Errboe

And our expectation is that we are going to not do this. Our expectation is that we are going to go into AR6, as Mads talked about earlier than. We do consider we will likely be a value taker on that public sale. However after all, the sweetness within the U.Okay. right here is that you just do have a excessive diploma of flexibility in the best way that it’s arrange.

So we’d have a possibility to do a company PPAs. So we determined to as a substitute of — if we’re towards expectation, not profitable in AR6, however our base assumption is clearly AR6.

Operator

And the subsequent query comes from [Ida Kane from Big Data].

Unidentified Analyst

Might I simply ask about your money circulate as a result of it was a bit weak within the fourth quarter? After which I wished to know what drove that? And particularly, I believe your internet debt elevated by simply over DKK4 billion within the quarter. And equally, I do know you had mentioned by 2026, that needs to be flat. However can we get a bit extra granularity find out how to anticipate for subsequent yr?

I imply the explanation I am asking that is that it appears to me like this yr, you decreased your hedge e book, which in all probability added fairly considerably to your money stability as a result of it is a collateral launch. And clearly, working capital was additionally decrease as effectively. So are you able to give us an thought of what kind of underlying money circulate in 2024 will seem like additionally as a result of I consider you are going to have important money prices in relation to Ocean Wind?

Rasmus Errboe

Sure. Thanks, Ida. We must come again to you on a few of the particulars of your query. However — and as you recognize, we do not information on our money circulate. We information on the metrics that we have now talked about at this time.

In order that goes for the a part of your query that pertains to 2024. And you might be proper that when it comes to the influence on our money circulate for 2023, we have now had a really constructive impact on our money flows relative to 2022. We had the reverse — these margins booked for our hedging program, the place clearly with the ability costs dropping, that’s not the case. So there’s a important constructive impact in our money circulate from that. However the particulars — the additional particulars we must come again to you on.

Unidentified Analyst

Was it round DKK4 billion from that?

Rasmus Errboe

A bit extra.

Unidentified Analyst

Okay. And clearly, your working capital, I seen that there was a type of a discount within the — in receivables. So that you had some success with getting paid. However after all, that is one thing that they may actually search for subsequent yr. And that is why I puzzled.

And as I mentioned, in This fall, we might see truly a rise within the money burn.

Rasmus Errboe

Sure. Prone to repeating myself, we have now to return again to you on that. And one level solely saying is that a part of this system that we’re wanting into for ’24 to ’26 can be provide chain financing. And you will notice that within the ratio on our — or you will notice that in our working capital. However it isn’t a really huge impact on our money flows.

Operator

And the subsequent query comes from Mark Freshney from UBS.

Mark Freshney

Rasmus, are you able to — in case you’re not profitable within the Dawn re-bid, what can be your whole anticipated money prices? As a result of, clearly, that venture would in all probability miss many home windows. So if we might get a quantity for that? And secondly, you have got spoken in your investor letter, Mads, a yr in the past about hedging the ability publicity for renewables, which is especially U.Okay. RO belongings.

I imply, clearly, energy market circumstances have modified within the final a number of weeks. And a few firms have reported it is much more tough to make cash in that market. I am simply questioning what you are seeing for present buying and selling within the U.Okay. market and whether or not it really works for or towards your publicity by U.Okay. belongings?

Rasmus Errboe

Ought to I take the Dawn one?

Mads Nipper

Sure.

Rasmus Errboe

So Mark, if we first take the — you possibly can say the impairment a part of your query after which the money afterwards. So within the impairment notice, [3 2], the place we have now mainly listed what are our assumptions on Dawn going into New York 4 and will we win. In that state of affairs, we are going to, as we said there, we anticipate to reverse our impairment with DKK1.8 billion with at this time’s assumptions by the top of the yr. And we have now additionally said that ought to we lose, which is one thing that we ascribed 25% — we have now 75%, 25% chance after we did the annual report, then you will notice an impairment on Dawn of we notice be write DKK5.5 billion.

And that, after all, involves that the best way we have now our forward-looking worth for the impairment testing now’s a chance weight of a win and a unfastened state of affairs. By way of your — the best way I perceive your money remark is that you’re in all probability referring to the cancellation charges. And in — on Dawn, we have now, primarily based on the learnings that we have now executed on Ocean Wind, Mads talked about earlier than, having been by the 270 contracts, et cetera.

We’ve additionally scrutinized the cancellation charges on Dawn. And we do anticipate that attributable to that, however much more attributable to the truth that time has handed since we got here out with Q3, we now anticipate within the unlikely state of affairs that we lose, we do anticipate at this time cancellation charges of expectedly DKK6 billion to DKK7 billion. So that will be clearly on the P&L in that state of affairs ought to we resolve to cancel the venture. There’s additionally different situations ought to we not achieve success. And that is one thing we must assess along with our accomplice, Eversource as a result of the deal we have now made with Eversource mainly solely enters into impact if we’re profitable in Dawn — New York 4.

Mads Nipper

And to your second query, Mark and right here — so after we are hedging our energy value publicity, we’re basically not with our present technique, hedging that to primarily type of to make cash on that, however to safe type of the ground in our manufacturing. So due to this fact, what we’re seeing now’s that that is actually nonetheless one thing that’s doable. It is a liquid market. So when it comes to, name it, speculative buying and selling, this isn’t a core a part of our technique, and we’re seeing that it’s nonetheless certainly doable to do the hedging that we deem proper with our new framework of 0% to 70%.

Rasmus Haervig

Excellent. And we have now time for one ultimate query, which comes additionally from a dial-in. Operator?

Operator

Our query comes from Jenny Ping from Citi.

Jenny Ping

Simply in your dividends, clearly, vacation till 2026. Are you able to elaborate on the way you’re occupied with the dividend past by 2026? I believe there is a footnote in your presentation about payout. Some colour on that will be nice.

Mads Nipper

Sure, we will do this. So what we’re saying additionally referencing to the earlier query, we’re having a deliberate three-year dividend we’re focusing on to reinstate that at a significant degree. And that’s what we goal and that’s what we are going to do. We can not get too near what we’re assuming, however it might be at a significant degree.

Rasmus Haervig

Nice. That concludes the presentation and Q&A. Mads, over to you for ultimate remarks.

Mads Nipper

Sure. And I am going to simply, once more, thanks very a lot for, as at all times, nice questions. But additionally thanks very a lot to everybody within the room who’ve come right here, and we are going to now focus in administration and Board on executing a plan that we very strongly consider in. Have a protected day. Thanks.