Dec 14, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel reacts from the sideline as they take on the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images The New England Patriots will travel for an important AFC matchup against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football. The Patriots are playing for the number one overall seed in the AFC, making this game as important as any this season. The Ravens are fighting for the playoffs, as they’re currently projected to miss, and this isn’t a game they can lose.
New England has been impressive this season, but they’ve benefited from an extremely easy schedule. They don’t have a ton of overly impressive wins, although they have won on the road against the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They’re also coming off a disappointing loss to the Bills, who had one of the best comebacks this season last week.
Overall, the Patriots rank third in the NFL in points average margin of victory (+7.6). They sit behind only the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks, who are nearly three points above everyone else. The key here is that New England has been just as good on the road as they have been at home this season.
The Patriots have found plenty of success both offensively and defensively this season. I think their numbers are inflated by their schedule, but I’m not overly concerned about this current Baltimore team.
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The Ravens aren’t nearly as bad as their record, but they’ve dealt with several injuries throughout the season. They’re getting healthier, which is why they’ve found more success recently, but that’s also been against a light schedule.
In recent games, Baltimore owns wins over the Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, and Cincinnati Bengals. They also have losses against the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Bengals.
One of the biggest keys is that Lamar Jackson isn’t playing at the same level since he returned from injury. He is willing to scramble at this point, but he isn’t being used in the run game like he normally would be.
Jackson averaged 19 yards per game on designed runs in his first four games of the season. Since returning, he’s averaging only 5.4 yards per game on designed runs. Granted, Jackson’s scrambling ability is always in play, but his lack of designed runs limits what the Baltimore offense can do.
This line feels like a bit of an overreaction, and I’ll take the extra field goal for New England.
Where to Bet: New England Patriots +3 spread | -105 at DraftKings Sportsbook
2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 23-33
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