Via Reuters comes the report that import volumes at the Port of Los Angeles, the busiest seaport in the United States, fell sharply in November as the impact of U.S. tariff policy rippled through global supply chains. The port reported an 11.5% year-on-year decline in imports, handling 406,421 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), after companies front-loaded shipments earlier in the year to avoid higher duties on a wide range of consumer and industrial goods.
Port executive director Gene Seroka said the pullback reflected both tariff-driven inventory build-ups and a broader climate of trade uncertainty that is reshaping shipping patterns. Exports also weakened, falling 8.4% to 113,706 TEUs, as retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural and manufactured goods and trade agreements excluding the United States continued to bite. Export volumes from the port have now declined for eleven consecutive months.
Despite the volatility, Seroka said total throughput at the port is still expected to exceed 10 million TEUs in 2025, broadly matching 2024 levels and marking the third-highest annual volume on record. However, he warned that the uneven trade flows driven by tariff policy are likely to persist well into 2026. “The uncertainty is here to stay,” he said, describing tariffs as a structural headwind rather than a temporary disruption.
The slowdown at Los Angeles mirrors a broader trend. Imports across all U.S. ports fell 7.8% in November, reflecting softer demand for Chinese goods and calendar effects related to the Thanksgiving holiday. Looking ahead, legal and political risks loom large. The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule in coming months on the legality of tariffs imposed under emergency powers, a decision that could reshape Washington’s trade toolkit even if it does not materially reduce protectionism.
Global trade faces further challenges in 2026, including geopolitical conflicts, fragile ceasefires in the Middle East, and the risk that large fiscal deficits lead to tighter government spending worldwide. While some tariff costs may soon be passed through to U.S. consumers, potential tax refunds early next year could offer a temporary boost to demand, setting up a complex and uneven outlook for trade, inflation and consumption.
