New research on prediction market odds suggests military bets win far more often than they should. Researchers at the Anti-Corruption Data Collective analyzed more than 400,000 settled Polymarket prediction market odds. They focused on large bets placed on unlikely outcomes.
These are wagers of at least $2,500 on outcomes priced below 35 percent implied probability. Across the platform, such bets pay out 14 percent of the time. In markets tied to military and defense events, they pay out 52 percent of the time. David Szakonyi, Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, and Michael Hornsby published the analysis on September 17, 2026.
The findings come months after prosecutors charged US serviceman Gannon Ken Van Dyke. He allegedly used classified information about the January 2026 operation that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Prosecutors say he turned a bet into roughly $400,000 in winnings. Earlier DOJ charges against the soldier detail his classified Polymarket bets. Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty, and his trial is expected later this year.
El FBI le puso los ganchos a un soldado Delta Force (Sargento Maestro – Gannon Ken Van Dyke), que participó y planificó la captura de Maduro el 3 de enero, pero 1 semana antes abrió una cuenta en Polymarket y apostó $32.537, obtuvo una ganancia de $413.062 (1.242%). (Sigue) 1/4. pic.twitter.com/LsW4BeNup2
— HevercastroB (@HeverCastroB) April 24, 2026
This is not simply a story about gambling on war. It is about how one wager on a public, pseudonymous ledger can leak sensitive operational details. Others may copy that trade without ever knowing where it came from. Polymarket lets users bet on strikes, ceasefires, and other outcomes in active conflicts.
The researchers describe how one informed trade can snowball into a visible signal. Other bettors read that signal and chase the profit. Intelligence services watching the chain may read it too, alongside other sources of information.
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A Long History of Betting on War That Regulators Never Quite Settled
The tension between forecasting markets and classified operations is not new. The Pentagon’s own DARPA-backed Policy Analysis Market, part of the FutureMAP program, proposed trading contracts on regime stability and terrorism-related events in the Middle East before bipartisan backlash forced its cancellation within days in July 2003, according to contemporaneous reporting on the program.
More recently, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission settled charges against Polymarket in 2021–2022 over unregistered event contracts, imposing a civil penalty of roughly $1.4 million.
An early signal that regulators viewed such markets as falling under existing commodities law, even before war-specific contracts drew scrutiny.
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The Mechanism: How On-Chain Transparency Shapes Prediction Market Odds
Polymarket trades are recorded on the blockchain, so every wager, its funding source, and its winnings are publicly visible. The main international site generally skips identity checks, unlike its US arm and rival Kalshi. Contracts trade between $0 and $1 and pay $1 to holders of the correct outcome.
In military markets, the researchers found 152 specialized wallets, dubbed “Orcas,” that won more than $8 million combined. Their average win rate topped 97 percent on the riskiest bets. Larger “Whale” accounts and automated trading services appeared to follow them, turning one signal into a visible shift in prediction market odds.
We suspect the lasting risk is structural rather than criminal: even when a wallet’s owner stays hidden, the trade is public and copyable in real time. That doesn’t prove every Orca was an insider. The pattern is anomalous, not proven.
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Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
Daniel Frances is a technical writer and Web3 educator specializing in macroeconomics and DeFi mechanics. A crypto native since 2017, Daniel leverages his background in on-chain analytics to author evidence-based reports and deep-dive guides. He holds certifications from The Blockchain Council, and is dedicated to providing “information gain” that cuts through market hype to find real-world blockchain utility.
