Fred Rispoli, a pro-XRP lawyer and the founder of HODL Law, has adjusted the likelihood of an SEC appeal in the case against Ripple to 60%. This comes after a new legal development where Ripple and the SEC agreed to secure 111% of a monetary judgment in an escrow, a move suggesting an anticipation of an appeal.

XRP Lawsuit: Why The Appeal Odds Are Higher Now

Rispoli explained via X that the agreement to place such a substantial sum in trust signals a potential move by the SEC towards appealing the case. He noted, “SEC vs Ripple Update: Well, the odds have increased of an appeal. Ripple and SEC have agreed to an arrangement where 111% of monetary judgment will be held in trust, to be paid to SEC only on (1) 30 days after appeal deadline or (2) after appeal concludes.”

He added that this does not guarantee an appeal, but the odds increased. “Putting that kind of money in a trust is not something that is done unless SEC is being evasive to Ripple lawyers as to whether it intends on appealing. Again, still possible that no appeal happens but odds have increased,” Rispoli stated.

The nature of the escrow sparked questions among X users, with one asking whether this could be a strategy by Ripple to leverage it for a settlement with the SEC. Rispoli suggested that this is definitely a possibility. He remarked, “Yes, it’s possible. It doesn’t seem like the SEC really cares about losing money, but this move delays the SEC from taking a dime during any possible appeal and allows Ripple to earn interest while it’s $125M is locked up.”

When pressed by another user about his current view on the likelihood of an appeal, Rispoli estimated the chances at 60% in favor of an appeal happening. This represents a nuanced shift from his previous estimates which were initially 55% following the Kraken case ruling by US District Judge William H. Orrick III, and even earlier, an 80% probability.

Additionally, Rispoli attempted to moderate the concerns within the XRP community about the potential for an extended legal battle. He reassured his followers by suggesting that the outcome of this case would not likely be decided until 2026, thus reducing immediate anxieties.

“To those freaking out over possible #SECvRipple appeal: Don’t. There won’t be a ruling until 2026. SEC suing exchanges and alleging multiple tokens as securities has lessened the sting dramatically. If Ripple and/or #XRP don’t make it now, it’s not because of the SEC’s case,” the pro-XRP lawyer remarked.

Complementing Rispoli’s commentary, Jeremy Hougan, another pro-XRP lawyer, speculated that the SEC might still be undecided about pursuing an appeal. Hougan reasoned, “Speculation time: Most likely the SEC just hasn’t made a decision whether it will appeal yet. Why? Filing a Notice of Appeal – see sample below – takes only 15 minutes (you file the Notice and then have 70 days to file the actual brief). If the decision to appeal was already made, there’s no reason to delay filing the Notice – especially when you think its bad case authority out there.”

This new speculation comes on the heels of Ripple’s latest filing on September 4 in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York. Ripple’s lawyers requested a stay on the monetary portion of an August 7 judgment that mandated the firm to pay $125 million. They proposed that Ripple should place roughly $139 million, or 111% of the judgment amount, into a bank account until either 30 days after the appeal period expires or any ongoing appeal is resolved.

At press time, XRP traded at $0.5534.