The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on August 14 is very much ‘live’.
- decision due at 2pm New Zealand time
- which is 0200 GMT
- which is 2200 US Eastern time on the 13th
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to keep its key cash rate at 5.50% at next Wednesday’s meeting. So says a majority, but not by many. As for market pricing, interest rate futures suggest an 85% chance of a rate cut next week and around 90 basis points of cuts by year-end
Some considerations for the RBNZ include:
- inflation has dropped to 3.3%, the lowest in three years but still above the Bank’s target range
- concerns over economic growth and rising unemployment
Comment from ANZ:
- expects no immediate cut
- believes the Bank will signal a quicker easing of rates due to the worsening economic outlook
- “We expect a cut in November, with the risk skewed towards an earlier move”
Other banks views:
- ASB and BNZ are predicting a cut next week
- Kiwibank, and Westpac expect it later in the year
Median forecasts indicate a rate drop to 5.00% by the end of the year
- RBNZ could lower rates by an additional 125 basis points in 2025, bringing the official cash rate to 3.75% by the end of 2025
Yesterday we had some news for the RBNZ, and for those looking for rate cut next week:
