Silver Price Analysis: XAGUSD Hits Record Highs (Up 130% in 2025)

Key Technical & Fundamental Takeaways

• Record-Breaking Run: Silver has surged another 4.25% today, hitting a fresh all-time high of $66.88.

• The Fundamental Driver: A “perfect storm” of falling real rates, structural supply deficits, and booming industrial demand (EVs/Solar) is fueling the rally.

• The Trend: Silver is now up a staggering 130% year-to-date in 2025.

• The “Line in the Sand”: The bullish trend remains intact as long as price holds above the 100-hour moving average at $63.84.

• Reversal Risk: A break below the $62.70 trendline would signal a technical shift in favor of the sellers.

Unstoppable Momentum: Silver Hits $66.42

Silver is continuing its relentless run to the upside, with the price currently trading up roughly 4.25% on the day at $66.42. Earlier in the session, the buying pressure extended the price to a new intraday record of $66.88.

This move is not an isolated event; it is the continuation of a powerful trend that has seen the white metal rise 130% in 2025. As the old trading adage goes, “trends are fast, directional, and tend to go farther than traders think.” Right now, this is the definition of a runaway trend.

The “Why”: 4 Pillars Driving the Silver Rally

Fundamentally, Silver has been moving higher on a rare combination of macro tailwinds and metal-specific tightness. Here is what is powering the move:

1. Monetary Policy & Rates: Easing real interest rates and expectations for looser monetary policy have improved the appeal of non-yielding assets like precious metals.

2. Hard Asset Demand: Persistent central bank buying and investor demand for “hard assets” have supported the entire complex.

3. Industrial Super-Cycle: Unlike Gold, Silver has massive industrial utility. Demand is soaring due to its critical role in solar panels, electrification, EVs, and advanced electronics.

4. Structural Deficit: Mine supply growth has lagged behind this exploding demand, creating a structural deficit that amplifies price moves when investment flows increase.

5. The Gold Sympathy Play: Gold’s own rally has pulled Silver higher via the gold-silver ratio. Once momentum builds, Silver often outperforms Gold due to its smaller, more volatile market cap.

Technical Analysis: When Does the Trend End?

All good things eventually come to an end. For this parabolic trend to reverse, we would need to see either a fundamental shift (a reversal of the drivers listed above) or, more immediately, price action that tilts the technical bias to the downside.

While markets can remain overbought for long periods, traders must watch specific “risk-defining” levels to know when the tide is turning.

The Bearish Trigger: Watch $63.84

Looking at the hourly chart, the immediate line in the sand is the rising 100-hour moving average, currently located at $63.84.

Secondary Support: The Trendline Test

Below the 100-hour MA lies a critical upward-sloping trendline that has been tested multiple times. This trendline support currently comes in near $62.70 and is rising.

If sellers can push the price below both the $63.84 moving average and the $62.70 trendline, it would mark a significant technical victory for the bears. In that scenario, the focus would shift to the rising 200-hour moving average, currently at $61.72, as the next downside target.

Bottom Line: Until those levels are broken, the sellers are not in control, and the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

Watch the video analysis

In the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) break down the technical factors driving the price of silver in real time, outlining the bias, the risk-defining levels, and the next upside and downside targets that matter most.

Be aware. Be prepared.