- 28 of 32 economists expect a 25 bps rate cut on Thursday
- 19 of 32 economists see policy rate at 0.25% by year-end i.e. one more rate cut only
- 13 of 15 economists see risk of negative policy rate as low
We’re pretty much getting the lower bound already for the SNB, with the policy rate at 0.50% coming into this week following another rate cut in December. They’ve done their job with Swiss inflation being the lowest among the G10 economies at the moment.
I wouldn’t think that they would want to return to ZIRP or NIRP again but we’ll see how franc developments play out in the year ahead amid a softening global growth outlook from Trump’s tariffs. That said, Germany’s spending boost is a welcome development in underpinning EUR/CHF I guess. So, there’s that too.
