Whereas the S & P 500 has extra doubled since hitting its pandemic low in March 2020, UBS thinks inventory values are “well supported.” UBS international wealth administration chief Mark Haefele expects the S & P 500 will rise to round 5,300 this 12 months. His forecast implies 5.6% upside from present ranges. The benchmark index was buying and selling above the 5,000 degree on Friday , after first breaching the mark simply forward of Thursday’s shut. Shares have benefited from stronger-than-expected company earnings and financial information as inflation continues to say no. With the index seeking to log a 1% acquire this week, it is on tempo for five-straight optimistic weeks. Haefele mentioned shares may rise additional within the occasion of a “Goldilocks” financial consequence, the place the U.S. financial system stays strong whereas inflation continues to fall, permitting the central financial institution to chop rates of interest. “We believe this would be a particularly positive outcome for small-cap stocks, which benefit more from Fed easing given their greater reliance on floating-rate debt,” he mentioned. Whereas Haefele’s base case requires the U.S. to realize a smooth financial touchdown with the S & P 500 ending the 12 months round latest ranges, the present financial situations are supporting his bull case, he mentioned. UBS pointed to a powerful fourth-quarter earnings season as an extra catalyst supporting his bull case, led by the continued prominence of tech shares and investor curiosity in synthetic intelligence. Haefele referred to as out financial information reminiscent of final week’s January payrolls report , which confirmed the labor market has remained sturdy, and a GDP report that confirmed annualized progress of three.3% , which is greater than the two% consensus forecast. Shopper spending additionally has been holding up amid greater costs — although inflation is easing. On Friday, the Labor Division launched an replace to the patron value index that painted a extra upbeat image for December inflation. Costs for a lot of frequent items rose lower than had been initially reported.
