Spain vs. Belgium Best Bets: Three Picks for Friday’s World Cup Quarterfinal

The World Cup quarterfinals continue when Spain meet Belgium on Friday afternoon in Inglewood, Calif.

Yes, we all wish the United States were facing La Roja at this stage. But what better way to get over the sting of the USMNT’s round of 16 defeat than to try and make some money.

Here are our three best bets for the match.

Match Result and Total Goals

Spain may be more capable of vertical attacking under Luis de la Fuente, but they’re still at their best when they’re controlling the ball.

And despite their reputation for attacking flair, that ability to manage the ball can actually lead to fewer chances and lower totals.

After going behind 2-0 in their round of 32 clash, the Red Devils have outscored opponents 7-1 to get past Senegal and the United States.

And yet it still feels like opponents beat themselves in both matches as much as anything the Red Devils did, and this is going to be a radically different matter.

So I’m backing a Spanish win in 90 minutes and the total coming in under 3.5 goals at +140 and an implied 41.7% probability.

Match result and total goals: Spain and under 3.5 (+140, DraftKings)

Player To Score Last Goal

Romelu Lukaku is no longer a 90-minute player for Belgium, and in a game where his side will be doing lots of defending, it seems unlikely he would make his second tournament start.

But he has still looked useful as a second-half substitute, scoring three times after the 85th minute, including the final goal against the United States.

I’m not enamored with any Belgian’s chances to find the net in this game, where they will have far less possession than they’ve had in most contests. But even in a lopsided defeat you could envision Lukaku getting a consolation tally in a final World Cup shift out of respect for what he has meant to the program.

There’s definitely a little value there on a last goalscorer wager at +750 odds and an implied 11.8% probability.

Player To Score Last Goal: Romelu Lukaku (+750, theScore Bet)

Second-half double chance

Spain is a stronger money line favorite in the second half than in the first, but that’s probably not a great reflection of how these teams do their damage.

Even while being relatively compact, Spain have scored first-half goals in three of five matches this tournament. With older attacking players that come off the bench, Belgium have unsurprisingly done more of their damage later on.

While I like Spain in this game overall, I think the second half favors Belgium relative to the first. And that’s why I’m backing them on a double-chance wager after halftime at +120 and an implied 45.5% probability.

A second-half tie or more Belgium goals after halftime and your wager pays out.

Second-half double chance: Belgium or draw, +120 (BetMGM)