Stan Chart sees Bitcoin hitting $200K this 12 months: ETF inflows surge, US fiscal dangers mount

Bitcoin’s rally could soon hit new highs, with Standard Chartered predicting the world’s largest cryptocurrency could surge to $135,000 in the short term and potentially reach $200,000 by year-end.

In a note shared with Decrypt, Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, said Bitcoin’s break above $121,000 fits the typical bullish “Uptober” pattern. However, he noted that unlike past cycles, BTC has avoided its usual post-halving slump, suggesting changing market dynamics.

Kendrick pointed to the ongoing US government shutdown as an unexpected bullish catalyst, arguing that Bitcoin is increasingly trading as a hedge against “US government risks,” as reflected in its correlation with Treasury term premiums.

He also highlighted the growing institutional appetite for Bitcoin ETFs, noting net inflows of $58 billion this year, including $23 billion in 2025 alone. Another $20 billion in inflows by year-end, he said, could make his $200K Bitcoin forecast achievable.