Sterling and aussie look to shake off the seasonal blues this 12 months

Typically, the August month isn’t too kind to GBP/USD and AUD/USD. However, this year is proving to be a bit different. The former is up 1.8% on the month while the latter is up 1.5% already to start August trading. Over the last years, this month is usually the worst month for both currency pairs. Here’s a look at the respective seasonal heatmaps over the last 20 years:

In the case of GBP/USD, the pair has only posted six positive August months since 2004. Meanwhile, there is only four such August months for AUD/USD over the last 20 years. But interestingly, both did post positive months in 2024 and are poised to repeat that again in 2025 if the first week is anything to go by.

While seasonal factors might be a consideration, it is also important to look at other key developments taking place in broader markets.

For one, the dollar has fallen off hard after the dismal US labour market report last week. That saw traders bring forward Fed rate cut expectations with fears of even softer US data still to come in Q3 2025. That is a key driver impacting both currency pairs right now.

Besides that though, we have the more hawkish rate cut by the BOE yesterday – at least as implied by the bank rate vote. I’d still argue it doesn’t change anything in the bigger picture but Lombardelli siding to hold the bank rate is a notable dissent. Still, this puts the BOE on track to pause in September before potentially cutting the bank rate again in November. It’s all on the data now.

And then, we are seeing the aussie hold up amid better risk sentiment in markets. Equities have gone from fearing the worsening economy last Friday to cheering on Fed rate cuts and that’s lifting the broader mood. So, that at least is helping to brush aside some of the negativity back home with the RBA poised to cut rates next week.

All in all, the seasonality charts are a guiding tool and one that you can keep in your back pocket for reference in times when traders are looking for something to work with. But amid the various factors above that are in play now, those will override what we see above as they are more pertinent in terms of influencing price action.

Coming up next week, the US CPI report will be another key driver to impact the dollar and that will likely help to set the tone for what’s left of August trading. So, be sure to keep a watchful eye on that.