The most recent U.S. inflation and employment figures give a mixed economic picture and have sparked wild market swings. But you wouldn’t know that by looking at this week’s performance in stocks. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are headed for their fourth weekly gain in five weeks, up 3.5% and 5.3%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has popped 1.9% this week. Those gains have come even after a massive but brief intraday sell-off on Wednesday — which was quickly erased after the S & P 500 stayed above a key level. “[Wednesday’s] violent reversal after testing 5400 support and [Thursday’s] follow through has helped to not only regain those short-term moving averages, but also move our short-term trend model back into the bullish camp,” Rob Ginsberg, technical strategist at Wolfe Research, wrote in a note. “Add to the mix the improving momentum … and after some wild whipsaw action since peaking two months ago it looks like the S & P wants to challenge 5650-5670 resistance heading into next week’s Fed meeting,” he added. .SPX 5D mountain SPX 5-day chart Indeed, after all the wild swings, the S & P 500 is a scant 1.2% below an intraday record of 5,669.67 reached in July. But these moves are confusing investors, given the current macroeconomic backdrop, according to Barclays strategist Emmanuel Cau. “Erratic price action in equities suggests confusion amid ever changing market narratives. This is understandably frustrating for investors, but is reminiscent of typical September seasonality and U.S. election cycle. On top of that, stocks usually struggle around the start of Fed easing cycles, and this time is no different, with a first cut expected next week,” Cau wrote. “The answers to whether a recession occurred or not won’t be known until later. Therefore, equity price action may stay volatile and data dependent, until we get more clarity on the economic outlook,” he added. Cau thinks a U.S. recession can be avoided.
