Chinese military aircraft activity near Taiwan has surged again after an unusual two-week lull that had prompted speculation about Beijing’s intentions.

Info via Politico.

Summary:

Taiwan detected 26 Chinese military aircraft near the island on Saturday.
Sixteen aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defence identification zone across multiple sectors.
Seven Chinese naval vessels were also operating near the island.
The surge follows an unusual two-week lull in Chinese military flights.
Analysts had speculated the drop was linked to China’s National People’s Congress meeting.
Others suggested Beijing may have sought to ease tensions before a potential Trump visit to China.
Taiwan says it did not adjust its defence posture during the slowdown.

Taiwan has reported a renewed surge in Chinese military activity near the island after an unusual lull in flights earlier this month that had prompted speculation among analysts about Beijing’s intentions.

According to Taiwan’s defence ministry, 26 Chinese military aircraft were detected operating near the island on Saturday, with 16 of them entering Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ) across northern, central and southwestern sectors. The ministry also reported the presence of seven Chinese naval vessels in surrounding waters.

The increase follows an earlier decline in Chinese military flights that observers had described as unusually pronounced. Taiwan recorded no incursions across the median line or into its ADIZ between February 27 and March 5. Only two aircraft were detected on March 6, and the following four days saw no flights at all — an uncommon pause given the near-daily operations Beijing has conducted in recent years.

The activity gradually resumed in smaller numbers later in the week before Saturday’s larger deployment.

Analysts had been debating the reasons behind the earlier slowdown. Some linked it to China’s annual parliamentary gathering, the National People’s Congress, which often coincides with reduced military activity during major political events and national holidays.

However, analysts noted that the recent decline appeared more pronounced than in previous years, suggesting other factors may have been at play.

One theory was that Beijing may have sought to lower tensions with Washington ahead of a planned visit by Donald Trump to China from March 31 to April 2. The White House has indicated the trip will go ahead, though Chinese authorities have not formally confirmed the visit.

Another possibility raised by analysts is that the pause reflected a shift in China’s military training cycle, as the armed forces test new approaches to joint operations between different branches of the military.

Taiwan’s defence officials have said they did not alter their defensive posture during the period of reduced activity. Defence Minister Wellington Koo previously noted that Chinese naval activity near Taiwan had remained steady even as aircraft flights declined.

China continues to claim Taiwan as its territory and has repeatedly stated that it is prepared to use force if necessary to bring the island under Beijing’s control. Military pressure through air and naval patrols has become a regular feature of cross-strait tensions in recent years.