Take 5: Most probably first-time main winners at U.S. Open

The past six major championships have been dominated by the same four faces: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and Bryson DeChambeau.

Not only have they combined to win those six titles, they’ve dotted the top 10 on every leaderboard, contending and pushing one another.

All four of those stars own multiple majors, and the sport hasn’t had a first-time winner since Brian Harman at the 2023 Open Championship. We might be overdue for a newcomer as the USGA sets up Oakmont Country Club for the U.S. Open this week.

Here are five golfers on the precipice of their major championship breakthrough — and why there’s reason to believe they could be in the mix on Sunday in Pennsylvania.

–Tommy Fleetwood

I remain convinced Fleetwood will win a major before his time is up.

He top-10’d at every major between 2022 and 2024 as his game seems to get better with age. Fleetwood ranks seventh on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained this season, and he isn’t lacking in any one area. In particular, he’s steady off the tee, and accurate driving is sure to be one of the keys at Oakmont with its thick rough.

In the past four U.S. Opens, 70 percent of players’ strokes gained off the tee came from accuracy, only 30 percent from distance.

–Sepp Straka

Nobody, not even in the highest ranks of golf cognoscenti, saw Straka coming. His own brother was more highly recruited to play college golf.

Now the Austria native-turned-Alabama resident is one of the hottest players in the world, with wins at the American Express and the Truist Championship to show for it.

Some of these rankings are wild: Second in total strokes gained! First in birdie average and greens in regulation percentage! He’s also 11th in driving accuracy, and at the U.S. Open last year at Pinehurst No. 2, Straka led the field in fairways in regulation. Don’t be stunned if he’s out in front at any point this week.

–Marc Leishman

This spot could have gone to Joaquin Niemann, coming off a victory Sunday at LIV Golf Virginia, but his major history hasn’t lived up to the lofty expectations around him. Niemann said himself that he thinks he’s still far off from winning a major.

I’m eyeing Leishman, the veteran Australian who sits eighth in the LIV table this year, with a win at Doral and a top-10 Sunday. He tied for 14th at the 2024 U.S. Open and tied for 18th the last time it was held at Oakmont (2016).

Most notably, Leishman qualified for the U.S. Open the old-fashioned way while a majority of LIV members dropped out, showing he’s confident in his game.

–Patrick Cantlay

The final round at Pinehurst was so consumed by DeChambeau vs. McIlroy that Cantlay’s best showing at a major became an afterthought. Thanks to an opening 65 and no major blunders, he was in the top three at the end of every round and finished only two shots back.

The U.S. Open may be the major he’s best suited to win. He has four straight top-15 finishes, and he ranked 14th in putting last year, ninth in 2023 and fourth in 2022. Listen, I know the bloom is off the rose with this guy, but I haven’t forgotten the clutch putts Cantlay made in the 2021 FedEx Cup playoffs.

–Sam Burns

Speaking of Americans who tend to get lost in the shuffle, all five of Burns’ PGA Tour wins came between May 2021 and March 2023 before he fell off for a while.

He’s rarely performed well in the majors, but his best showing just so happened to be a T9 at the 2024 U.S. Open.

Now he’s building at the right time, as several top-20s culminated in his breakout weekend at the RBC Canadian Open. Statistically, Burns is also the best putter on tour this year. Now, did that help him win a playoff against Ryan Fox on Sunday? No, but it may keep him sane this week if the USGA decides to trick out the Oakmont greens.

–Adam Zielonka, Field Level Media