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Tesla This fall deliveries 495,570 vs 506,763 anticipated

  • Deliveries vs 506,763 expected (though some surveys were near 512K)
  • Production 459,445 vs 460,705 expected
  • Model 3/Y deliveries at 471,930
  • Other models (mostly Cybertruck) 23,640
  • Press release

Shares of Tesla were trading at $409.60 in the premarket before the release and are quickly down to $387.

The miss looks like it was mostly on the Cybertruck.

In order to avoid an annual sales decline, Tesla needed to deliver 514,925 cars. It fell well-short of that so the headline will be ‘Tesla suffers its first-ever annual sales decline’.

Annually the sales were 1.789 million vehicles versus 1.810 million in 2023.

For the stock, there is some support around $360. Elon Musk has talked about 20-30% sales growth in 2025 based on the release of lower-priced models but the question then will be around margins. I suspect that very few of the people who have been buying shares are about deliveries now but rather about the robo-taxi promises, AI and robotics.

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