Tesla (TSLA) reclaims 200-hour MA as rebound continues, however dangers stay

Shares of Tesla are sharply in trading today. Shares are currently up $19 or 6.99% of $291. The high price has reached $291.85 while the low price was down at $271.82.

Technically, the share price is showing bullish momentum after holding key support at $265.13 yesterday, a level tied to prior swing lows (see red numbered circles on the chart above). The bounce off this area helped keep buyers in play, and the price has now reclaimed the 200-hour moving average at $280.34—a level that previously was broken earlier this week but failed..

As long as TSLA remains above this 200-hour MA, short-term control favors the bulls. The next major upside target sits at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the January 17 high, which comes in at $302.10. That level will be a critical test for buyers and a possible pivot point in the medium-term trend.

But risks remain.

Tesla’s stock continues to be influenced by the public profile and actions of CEO Elon Musk. His ongoing support and leadership for DOGE and controversial political takes could continue to introduce volatility. Early this week European sales of Tesla’s were down sharply. In the US his DOGE actions and support of Pres. Trump has alienated his buying base that supported the company – and cars – for their environmental advancements.

The good for the shares is Tesla does produce cars in the US. So they are less impacted by tariffs.

Tesla shares have historically commanded a premium over traditional automakers, largely due to their perceived technological edge. However, that premium also heightens downside risk during periods of uncertainty. Since the January 17 high, the stock has fallen 50.65%, erasing significant value. While it has since rebounded 34.00% off the March 11 low, the recovery amounts to only about $70—retracing just a portion of the $223 decline.

As a result of the potential volatility, understanding the technicals in play is crucial.

Key levels:

• Support: $265.13 (swing low)

• Resistance: $280.34 (200-hour MA), $302.10 (38.2% retracement)

• Bias: Bullish above $280.34, bearish if back below

Bottom line:

Technical buyers are in control in the short-term above $280.34 with room to run toward $302.10. But headline and political risk tied to Elon Musk’s external ventures could cloud the outlook..