In quite a lot of methods, feverishly watching the flight route of a aircraft that wasn’t all the pieces it was cracked as much as be is a fairly good metaphor for the Toronto Blue Jays’ offseason and outlook. The Jays knew Shohei Ohtani wasn’t on that flight, however their followers actually didn’t. That doesn’t imply that the Jays themselves have acted in any much less of a deluded method this winter, or are much less fuzzy on who they’re as spring coaching is a month away.
There are actually quite a lot of annoyed fanbases throughout MLB, in all probability most of them outdoors central Los Angeles. Giants followers would possibly flip Oracle Park into the brand new Jamestown at this level. Mariners followers are simply confused. Cubs followers watch for one thing to point out that the staff is severe about performing like the largest market within the NL Central. Yankees followers are questioning the place their signings are, nevertheless placated they had been by the commerce for Juan Soto. Mets followers are Mets followers. This record may go on and on, however Blue Jays followers are close to the highest of the “What the hell are we doing?” brigade.
A winter that promised a run at Ohtani or a commerce for Soto, or maybe the seize of Cody Bellinger, no matter it was, everybody was fairly positive the Jays weren’t glad being a third-place staff with 89 wins. That after years of promise and a “just you wait and see” sneer with the reassurance that it’ll all come collectively, properly, it hasn’t come collectively. No playoff wins, no division titles, no sniff of a 3rd World Collection banner hanging over the redone Rogers Centre.
And possibly it’s time for the Jays to confess the place they’re, which might hopefully give them the right impetus to try to develop into one thing extra.
This period of Toronto baseball is constructed on the premise that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are cornerstones. Even earlier than they’d hit the majors, most followers had heard the joy that three youngsters of former gamers–Bichette, Vladito, and Cavan Biggio on the time – had been coming to drag the Jays out of their late 2010s malaise (and depart it to the one Canadian staff in MLB to make use of the commonest type of hockey scouting, selecting a former participant’s garbage son). Biggio has by no means been rather more than a bench participant, however Bichette and Vlad have taken up the anticipated roles within the on a regular basis lineup.
However how good are they actually? Guerrero has gotten a good quantity of mileage out of being Vlad’s child and one MVP-worthy season. That was in 2021, when he slashed .311/.401/.601 for a 167 OPS+.
However Guerrero Jr.’s different OPS+ marks in each different full season he’s performed are 106, 133, 117. Hardly dangerous, but additionally probably not the bedrock of a contender. Which one is he? There’s extra proof to recommend that Vlad Jr. is admittedly good, however not nice. He’s nonetheless solely 25 and was undone by some rotten luck final yr (.374 xwOBA vs. a .340 precise). Rogers Centre could also be a pitcher’s park now in any case the development, and are the Jays going to financial institution their whole fortunes on one thing they’ve seen as soon as out of 4 tries?
As for Bichette, he was at all times going to be the rhythm guitarist to Vlad’s lead, and that’s just about what he’s been. Bichette had a superb half of a rookie season in 2019, and has settled into the 120-130 OPS+ vary ever since with satisfactory fielding at brief (twenty eighth amongst shortstops in Outs Above Common, in accordance with Statcast). He’ll flip 26 in March, and whereas all of that racks as much as an excellent participant, the Jays must be trustworthy with themselves about what he could be and what which means for them going ahead. Is he actually going to be the very best participant on a staff in a World Collection?
Hanging over each Bichette and Guerrero Jr. is that they’re two seasons from free company, for a staff that simply hasn’t fairly been it for the previous couple seasons. That’s one other dialogue for an additional time.
What’s staring on the Jays now could be they had been one of many league’s greatest offensive groups two and three years in the past. However that was constructed on the again of both gamers who aren’t there anymore (Marcus Semien, Teoscar Hernandez), gamers who’ve gotten older since (George Springer) or on the 2 faces of the franchise that haven’t gotten again to these ranges.
Equally, the rotation behind Kevin Gausman is on rocky floor. Jose Berrios was in a position to get out of his home-run hell of 2022 final season, however is he actually the No. 2 on a staff with larger aspirations? Chris Bassit is 35 and simply crossed the 200-inning plateau for the primary time. Are they relying on Alek Manoah once more, after his arm became a tentacle final yr?
That doesn’t imply the Jays must be chasing after Blake Snell, who comes with some severe pink flags. Jordan Montgomery makes a ton of sense right here, however Montgomery makes a ton of sense for nearly each MLB staff and remains to be with out a dwelling.
Do the Jays see themselves as a third-place staff? Or do they see themselves as a star-laden squad simply ready for all of it to come back collectively, regardless that Bichette and Guerrero haven’t lived in that state for lengthy, and Springer has aged out of it?
The Jays had been miles behind the Orioles final season, and whereas the Os haven’t achieved all that a lot to enhance, neither have the Jays. The Yankees have Soto in tow now and nonetheless would possibly add. And the Yankees have two real stars in Aaron Decide and Gerrit Cole, even when the previous could be fabricated from taped collectively sponges. The Rays will simply determine it out as a result of it’s what they do.
There’s a good probability that Bichette and Guerrero Jr. will be higher than they had been or have been. However there’s a component of wish-casting in that. The Jays haven’t insured themselves towards that and banners aren’t held on wish-casting.
Comply with Sam on Twitter @Felsgate and on Bluesky @felsgate.bsky.social
