The Bank of England cut rates by 25 basis points, sending GBPUSD initially lower to the session’s low and briefly breaking below the recent support floor near 1.1254—an area that had held over the past week. However, the move quickly reversed as traders digested the mixed vote, which included dissenters on both sides of the consensus cut.
The rebound took the pair back toward the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, currently between 1.33137 and 1.33335. So far, the rally has stalled in that area. A sustained move above the 200-hour MA would be needed to shift the technical bias more convincingly in favor of the buyers. It’s worth noting that the pair briefly traded above these levels on Tuesday and again attempted to hold above them yesterday, but upside momentum faded—helped in part by a post-FOMC rebound in the US dollar. PS Trump announced that a trade deal with the UK (the UK is the 7th largest trading partner with the US).
The EURUSD is starting the US session modestly lower after testing key support between 1.12657 and 1.12754. The low price reached 1.12696. On the topside the 100 and 200 hour MAs will be topside resistance between 1.13289 and 1.13404. Like the GBPUSD, the price this week has moved above those MAs, but stalled. Watching 1.12657 on the downside and 1.13404 on the topside.
The USDJPY is pushing higher after breaking above the 100 hour MA (currently at 143.743) and the 38.2% retracement at 144.208. On the topside the falling 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 145.184 is the next key target on more upside momentum. Recall from last week, the price stalled the high for the week at that MA level and that started the fall (from 145.87) to the low reached on Tuesday (at 142.35).
US stocks are higher to start the day helped by trade-deal hope. Pres. Trump also said he would ease chip constraints which has the likes of Nvidia and Broadcom trading higher.
Looking at the major indices, the futures are implying:
- Dow Industrial average is up 329 points
- S&P Index is up 54 points
- Nasdaq index is up 265 points.
In the US debt market:
- 2 year yield 3.822%, +2.9 basis points
- 5 year yield 3.908%, +3.5 basis points
- 10-year yield 4.298%, +2.3 basis points
- 30-year year 4.78%, +1.6 basis points
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