And that has been key in driving moves across broader markets. Of note, equities have been more sluggish while the dollar is staying more bid. In turn, we’re also seeing commodities pull back further. Although in the case of precious metals, one can argue that we might be overdue. Here’s a look at 10-year yields in the US:
US Treasury 10-year yields (%) daily chart
The rebound in yields come amid a bounce off its 200-day moving average (blue line). That came as traders also braved past the US CPI report at the time, which did not favour the dollar and the outlook for higher rates.
If anything else, it reaffirms that we’re only bouncing between the pricing of one or two rate cuts by the Fed now. But I would say there is an outside risk of there being no rate cuts at all. From here, it all depends on the data in the months ahead.
The US PCE price data tomorrow will be the next one to watch. But straight after that into next week, we’ll have US jobs data to scrutinise once again.
For now, Bill Gross’ call doesn’t look too bad again all of a sudden, eh?
