On the floor, Cody Bellinger’s life is about to get higher it doesn’t matter what. He was a down-ballot MVP candidate final season who’s heading into free company, in addition to a former MVP and Rookie of the Yr. He would have been labeled a unicorn again within the day, given his skill to play Gold Glove-level protection in centerfield and at first base, besides that Shohei Ohtani has now redefined what unicorn means in baseball. Bellinger is simply 28, and possibly nonetheless has some prime years left. Usually, this sort of man would get a fanbase all hopped up on goofballs with the information of his signing.
And Bellinger will get his cash. However when studying up on the place he may be going, or what he may be getting provided, there’s an undertone of warning or hesitancy, which sounds fairly rattling bizarre for a man who can play these two positions whereas slugging .525. And once more, at age 28. Cue the Seinfeld voice, “What’s the deal?”
For one, Bellinger solely had one good season after the 2 seasons the place he was unhappiness and despair in human type. Most attributed that to shoulder and knee accidents he picked up in 2020, however he’s nonetheless the man in 2021 who put up a 47 wRC+ and an 83 in 2022. It was u-g-l-y, although Bellinger had an alibi. Nonetheless, these seasons aren’t far sufficient prior to now to be forgotten.
There are additionally some blinking lights about his comeback season with the Chicago Cubs final season. The nice is that his energy returned. To not the degrees of his ROY or MVP season, however that .525 slugging mark is an antihistamine quantity (to not be sneezed at! I’ll present myself out). And once more, to reiterate, a man who can present that sort of energy whereas enjoying two positions almost flawlessly is an absolute stone bitch of a participant to have. Bellinger was additionally in a position to reduce his strikeouts down considerably, from over 25 p.c within the earlier two campaigns to only 15.6 p.c final yr. Energy, protection, self-discipline on the plate, that is getting fairly appetizing, proper?
The issue for some when learning Bellinger is that his contact numbers are simply actually bizarre. As a result of Bellinger didn’t hit the ball very arduous in any respect. His common exit velocity of 87.9 was simply the twenty second percentile. His barrel fee was within the twenty seventh percentile. His hard-hit fee was simply the tenth percentile. His anticipated batting common was some 30 factors decrease than his precise, and his anticipated slugging was almost 100 factors decrease than his precise. It’s odd. Belinger’s BABIP was .319, a career-high and 34 factors above his profession common. However .319 isn’t some mutated whole that’s so out of line with the traditional .300 you discover across the league. It is going to most likely come down, however not in a violent swing. Perhaps. Who can predict?
The excellent news for Bellinger and whoever indicators him is that after he returned from a knee damage in June that induced him to overlook a month, his exit velocity elevated each month from there on out, capping at 89.7 MPH in September. His barrel fee didn’t creep up at fairly the identical fee, however nonetheless improved as he bought farther away from that damage layoff.
One other change for Bellinger in 2023 was simply how a lot contact he made, particularly within the strike zone. Bellinger made contact on 87 p.c of the swings he took on pitches within the zone, a career-high by a distance. He additionally made extra contact on pitches exterior the zone than he ever had earlier than. Bellinger’s swing fee was consistent with what he’d accomplished in ‘21 and ‘22, but we know what those seasons were. It’s the primary time he’d proven that sort of bat-to-ball expertise since his MVP season. Is that this the brand new regular or will whiffs come again into his recreation?
One other warning signal is that top velocity bought by Bellinger. Throughout his MVP season in 2019, on fastballs 95 MPH or over, Bellinger hit .278 and slugged .611. Final yr? .203 and .362. And his anticipated numbers recommend he was very fortunate to get to even these ranges on premium warmth. That isn’t prone to get higher as he strikes in the direction of and into his 30s. Drop that down measure to 93 MPH or greater, which is just about everybody’s fastball exterior of Kyle Hendricks, and the numbers tick as much as .254 BA and .485 SLG. Can conclude that Bellinger might nonetheless get to good fastballs, however something higher and it was a battle.
On the flip facet, Bellinger completely murdered off-speed pitches final yr, to the tune of a .630 slugging and .458 wOBA. However what number of of these is he going to see going ahead given what everybody can see he does towards plus warmth?
The ground on Bellinger is a plus-plus glove mixed with, most definitely, a consultant quantity of manufacturing on the plate, however wanting the star-level that we noticed final yr. He simply doesn’t hit the ball very arduous proper now. He’ll stroll sufficient and never strike out sufficient to make that OK. However that pop-gun contact might simply flip into far more outs than it did final yr. Or he might signal with the Yankees and simply loop 30-35 homers over that canine park fence they put in proper area and nobody’s going to essentially care. Put him in Oracle Park 81 occasions a yr and ask him to go to battle towards breezes coming in off the cove, and that’s a unique story. He additionally hasn’t confirmed in a couple of years now that he can keep wholesome for 162.
There are extra questions below the floor about forking out for Bellinger than you would possibly suppose given the headlines on his baseball card. He’ll get his cash for positive, the free agent class simply isn’t that good and he stands out. Whether or not followers of that workforce are tilting their heads at him in two or three years or sooner…
Observe Sam on Twitter @Felsgate and on Bluesky @felsgate.bsky.social
