US 30y yields daily
The opportunity to buy 30-year Treasuries yielding 5% briefly presented itself this week for the fourth time this year. All the other attempts were quickly beaten back and that same knee-jerk unfolded this time, driving yields to as low as 4.86% today.
The UMich report though seemed to underline ongoing angst about inflation and led to a bounce to 4.90%. If it holds, that will be the second-highest weekly close since October 2023 (the Liz Truss fiasco). Beyond that you need to go to before the financial crisis.
In short, the opportunity to buy bonds at these kinds of rates is rare and the market hasn’t forgotten that.
There was probably some good news on the fiscal front for bonds today as some Republicans pushed back on the huge deficit increase that’s coming in Trump’s budget. That said, he’s right to be highlighting that they’re just grandstanding and will ultimately support it.
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