The USD is lower vs the 3 major currency pairs. The EURUSD is higher after an early European session move to the downside stalled near a swing area (between 1.0761 to 1.07767. The USDJPY has moved lower and trades at session lows to start the US sesssion. It is tesing the 200 bar MA on the 4 hour chart a day after breaking above that MA for the first time since January 27. The MA comes in at 150.013. The low just reached 150.054. The GBPUSD is bouncing after testing the rising 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.2900. The price is back up to 1.2955 after the bounce (the low reached 1.29011).

The video above outlines the key levels in the 3-major currency pairs (EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD) to start the new trading day and explains why the levels are important. I also outline the targets and the risks for the current bias. Be aware. Be prepared.

On tariff news today (subject to change at any minute), the FT is reporting that President Donald Trump is considering a two-step tariff strategy set to begin on “Liberation Day” (April 2nd). The proposed plan includes creating a stronger legal foundation for a “reciprocal” tariff regime, potentially generating revenue to support planned tax cuts. One option under review involves launching Section 301 investigations into U.S. trading partners while using emergency powers to impose immediate tariffs in the meantime. Additionally, Trump may reintroduce tariffs on vehicle imports, reviving a national security investigation into the auto industry from his first term. These discussions highlight ongoing debate within the administration over trade policy direction.

For your guide:

Section 301 refers to a provision in the U.S. Trade Act of 1974 that gives the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) the authority to investigate and respond to unfair trade practices by other countries.

Key Points:

Purpose: To address practices that are unjustifiable, unreasonable, or discriminatory, and that burden or restrict U.S. commerce.
Scope: It can be used to target a range of issues, including intellectual property theft, forced technology transfer, or market access restrictions.
Response Tools: If violations are found, the U.S. can impose tariffs, duties, or other trade restrictions on the offending country.
Famous Use: Most notably, it was used by the Trump administration during the U.S.–China trade war to justify tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods.

ECBs Kazimir said that the ECB is open to discuss rate cut or pausing April and added that the current rates are already in the zone of neutral rate.

ECBs Muller said that rates are not restricting the economy or investments and that tears are likely to meet faster inflation in the short term. Any further cuts will be tariff dependent but he cannot rule out a pause at the next meeting.

The US stocks are marginally higher working on the 3rd day to the upside. US yields are higher as well . On the economic calendar today:

US Case Schiller home price data January will be released with expectations 0.4% versus 0.5% last month
US consumer confidence for March is expected to fall to 94.0 from 98.3 last month.
US new sales for February are expected to come in at an annualized rate of 0.679 million versus 0.657M last month
The regional Richmond Fed composite index for March will be released. Last month they came in at six with the service index at 11 and the shipments at 12. Recall that last week, the Empire manufacturing index came in much weaker at -20 versus -1.9 estimate. But the Philly Fed manufacturing index was stronger at 12.5 versus 8.8 estimate but still lower than the prior month at 18.1.

On the US Fed speaker front:

Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on “Economic Landscape and Entrepreneurship” before the US Hispanic Chamber of Commerce 2025 legislative Summit
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams gives opening remarks before the 2025 New York Fed Regional and Community Banking Conference

Looking at snapshot of some of the current market levels to start the new trading day in the US, the US stock futures implying a higher open:

Dow industrial average +64.68 points
S&P index +12.18 points
NASDAQ index +35.81 points

in the US debt market, the US treasury will auction off to year notes at 1 PM ET. Ahead of the auction and the US data today, yields are moving to the upside with a steeper yield curve

2 year yield 4.049%, +1.2 basis points
5-year yield 4.116%, +2.3 basis points
10 year yield 4.365%, +3.5 basis points
30 year yield 4.703%, +4.7 basis points

In other markets to start the US trading day:

Crude oil +$0.49 or 0.69% at $69.58. The high price today at $69.62 is its highest level since March 3
Spot gold is trading up $5.50 or 0.18% at $3016.
Silver is trading up $0.38 or 1.14% and $33.39
Bitcoin is trading down -$300 and $87,206