Federal Reserve officials are barred from commenting on monetary policy from midnight Friday until after the December 18 FOMC decision. Given the late date for the final FOMC meeting, it could be quiet for the remainder of the month as the Christmas doldrums will kick-off soon afterwards.
There is a risk of some kind of Fed leak next week’s CPI re-shapes the picture but that’s unlikely. Given that the market is now pricing in an 85% chance of a December cut, the FOMC doesn’t need to send any kind of signal if the plan is to cut.
Cutting to 4.25-4.50% is hardly going to stoke inflation so it’s an easy call for the Fed to cut and wait to see what happens next in the broader economy.
