The USD is higher vs the EURUSD and GBPUSD to start the US trading session, while the greenback is lower vs the JPY in mixed USD trading. What are the technicals telling traders. I go through the actions of the traders so far today and explain key levels in play in the above video.

A day after the Fed kept rates unchanged, the Bank of England (BOE) kept its Bank Rate unchanged at 4.5% in an 8–1 vote, with one member favoring a 25 bps cut to 4.25%. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) acknowledged substantial progress on disinflation over the past two years, with external shocks fading and tight monetary policy helping to stabilize inflation expectations. However, it maintained a restrictive stance to ensure persistent inflationary pressures continue to ease.

Global trade policy uncertainty has risen, with new U.S. tariffs prompting responses from other governments. Additional geopolitical risks and financial market volatility have also increased. Despite slightly stronger-than-expected UK GDP growth, business surveys indicate weakness in growth and employment intentions, with recent subdued activity attributed to both demand and supply factors.

CPI inflation rose to 3.0% in January (from 2.5% in December), slightly exceeding BOE forecasts. While domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, they remain elevated. Inflation is projected to reach 3.75% in Q3 2025 before easing. The BOE remains cautious about potential persistent inflation risks, including supply constraints and second-round wage effects.

Going forward, the BOE will gradually and carefully assess the need to withdraw monetary policy restraint. If demand weakens further, a less restrictive stance may be appropriate, but if inflationary pressures persist, tighter policy could be needed. The MPC will continue monitoring inflation risks and maintain restrictive policy until inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target. Decisions on policy adjustments will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) also had its rate decision today and reacting to lower inflation cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.25%, as expected, from the previous 0.50%. The central bank said remains prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary to maintain appropriate monetary conditions.

Inflation projections have been adjusted, with 2025 CPI now seen at 0.4%, down from the previous estimate of 1.1%. For 2026, inflation is expected at 0.8%, revised up from 0.3%, while the 2027 forecast remains unchanged at 0.8%. Despite these adjustments, the SNB anticipates that underlying inflationary pressure will continue to ease gradually over the coming quarters.

On the economic front, the central bank projects GDP growth of 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025, unchanged from previous estimates, and 1.5% for 2026. The SNB expects global economic growth to remain moderate in the near term. However, it acknowledges that the situation could change rapidly due to trade and geopolitical risks, which could impact future monetary policy decisions

Later, SNB Chair Martin Schlegel stated that Swiss inflation has developed as expected and that monetary conditions are now appropriate following the rate cut. However, policymakers acknowledged significant uncertainty in the inflation outlook, with risks primarily to the downside. Inflation remains driven by domestic services, but it is expected to ease gradually, especially in Europe.

Vice Chair Martin highlighted that the global economic scenario remains highly uncertain, with increasing trade barriers potentially weakening global growth. Policymaker Tschudin pointed to developments abroad as the main risk and noted that Switzerland’s economic situation has become considerably more uncertain.

Schlegel also suggested that the probability of further easing has now decreased, reinforcing the idea that this may be the final rate cut unless economic conditions change materially.

The US initial jobless claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing index will be released at 8:30 AM. THe existing home sales will be released at 10 AM. Canada will release PPI inflation levels.