- Dot plot leaned narrowly towards three rate cuts (two expected today)
- Median at 3.1% for end-2025
- 2024 GDP growth median +1.2%
- 2025 GDP +1.9%
- Unemployment rate 4.6% in 2024 and 2025 (currently at 4.0%)
- 2024 PCE inflation 2.5%
- 2025 PCE inflation 2.1%
- 2024 core PCE 2.6%
- 2025 core PCE 2.1%
I don’t see big changes here but I’d expect upside risks to 2024 GDP and downside risks to 2024 unemployment. I could see inflation this year ticking up but the 2025 numbers should stay low.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
