The unbelievable bid in US 2-year notes continues

It is robust to place into phrases how huge and difficult-to-explain the strikes on the entrance finish have been yesterday and in the present day.

CPI was scorching yesterday and US 2s moved as much as 4.39% from 4.33% however inside hours that was erased. Later yesterday, yields fell additional, presumably on slightly-dovish Fed feedback and worries about Yemen strikes. At this time, the underside has fallen out with 2s down a further 14 bps to 4.12%.

To place that into perspective, three-month t-bills are yielding 5.36% (proper between the Fed’s goal of 5.25-5.50%. You’ll be able to roll that every one the best way out. As a way to do higher in 2s, you would want appreciable Fed charge cuts on the back-half of the two-year interval.

I discover it tough to clarify this transfer and why the March Fed is now +90% for a minimize with 169 bps priced on this yr (up from 136 simply after CPI).

In any case, the drop is actually unfavourable for USD/JPY and that is what is unfolding.

This text was written by Adam Button at