The USD is higher to kickstart Friday ahead of durable goods orders which will be released at 8:30 AM. The expectations are for -10.8% after last months search of 16.4% on the back of transportation orders. The Non Defense Capital Goods ex air is expected to rise by 0.2% after a 1.7% gain last month.

In the video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs from a technical perspective to kickstart the North American trading session .

From ECB central bankers after the no-change in rate decision yesterday, and the “sources” hints that September was leaning to ‘No change” as well:.

ECB’s Villeroy said the recent US tariff hikes are not expected to fuel inflation and emphasized that euro strength is having a disinflationary effect. He stressed the importance of remaining flexible and data-dependent in a volatile environment, noting that inflation is under control while risks to growth remain tilted to the downside. His comments reflect a continued dovish stance, keeping the door open for further rate cuts.
ECB’s Rehn said the Governing Council will continue to make monetary policy decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis, guided by the inflation outlook and surrounding risks. He noted growing concern over economic growth and said it makes sense to take extra time before making decisions. His comments reaffirm the ECB’s data-dependent approach, as they wait for more clarity on the US-EU trade deal, which could involve tariffs of around 15%.
ECB’s Kazaks said there is no urgent need to adjust rates, emphasizing the value in holding them steady as easing continues to filter through the economy. He noted that the era of clear-cut rate hikes or cuts is over, and a steady-hand approach is appropriate for now. While the euro remains near historical averages, it is being closely monitored, and Kazaks believes there is still untapped potential in the economy.

The ECB’s latest survey of professional forecasters shows lower inflation expectations, with 2025 inflation now seen at 2.0% (down from 2.2%) and 2026 at 1.8% (down from 2.0%). GDP growth for 2025 was revised up slightly to 1.1%, while 2026 growth was trimmed to 1.1%. This aligns with ECB President Lagarde’s comment yesterday that median inflation expectations remain centered around the 2% target. ECB Simkus reiterated that view today as well.

Yesterday, Lagarde was non-commited to future action but seemed to be content where things were at the moment (“we are in a good place”).

In the UK this morning, UK June retail sales rebounded +0.9% m/m, though below the +1.2% expected, after a sharp -2.8% decline in May. Year-on-year, sales rose +1.7%, also missing forecasts. Sales excluding autos and fuel rose +0.6% m/m, again under expectations. Despite the miss, the data confirms a solid recovery, driven by strong food store sales and a 1.7% jump in online retail—the highest since Feb 2022—helped by promotions and warm weather. The miss, has helped to weaken the GBPUSD today.

Meanwhile, in Japan the BoJ is reportedly considering a potential rate hike by year-end, expecting to have sufficient data by then to make a decision. While it sees no need for drastic changes to its current outlook, the recent US-Japan trade deal has reduced uncertainty. Markets had largely priced this in earlier, with tightening expectations rising to 22 bps from 14 bps post-deal.

On the economic data front today, Germany’s July Ifo business climate index rose slightly to 88.6, just below the 89.0 expected, up from 88.4 in June. The current conditions component improved to 87.8 (above the 86.7 expected), while expectations held steady at 90.7, slightly missing forecasts. The data reflects gradual optimism heading into Q3, supported by fiscal hopes, though Trump’s tariffs remain a potential headwind, as seen in Volkswagen’s Q2 results.

US stocks are little changed as implied by the futures: