THe Retail sales were a “miss” across the board. Headline retail sales came in at -0.9% versus -0.1% estimate. The control group fell -0.8% prices +0.3% estimate. There were minor revisions to the prior month to the upside, but the data was not a good start to the year. The numbers may have been influenced by things like the California wildfires/weather. Concerns about tariffs and higher prices may also been an impact (remember consumer sentiment started to move sharply to the downside).

A general slowing is probably good after a solid second half of 2024 and especially since inflation has been elevated

The US dollar has move lower off the report:

EURUSD: The EURUSD has moved to a new session high near 1.0500 (the high price has reach 1.0497. The current prices at 1.0492). The price is moving away from a swing area between 1.0452 and 1.04677. Early today, the price moved above that swing area, then corrected back down into that swing area, before basing and moving higher.

EURUSD technicals

USDJPY: The USDJPY is moving away from the cluster of MAs between 152.698 and 153.064. The price is trading currently at 152.135. The next target come in at 151.798, then a swing area near 151.20 – 151.34 and the low price for February at 150.922.

GBPUSD: The GBP/USD has reached the 38.2% retracement level at 1.26076, positioned within a key swing area between 1.2596 and 1.26147. A sustained break above this zone would strengthen bullish sentiment and provide buyers with more confidence. If momentum continues, the next upside target lies in the 1.2663–1.2670 range, followed by the 100-day moving average at 1.26959. Holding above the 38.2% retracement level is crucial for further upside. However, failure to break through or a stall at this level would suggest a standard correction rather than a strong reversal. This remains a key technical level to watch.

Looking at the premarket stock indices, the major indices are marginally lower: