The USDCHF bounces off the 100 hour MA. Back above 200 hour and 200 day MAs

Yesterday, the USDCHF bounced near lows from earlier this week and last week (near 0.8755). The Swiss National Bank did cut rates by 25 basis points which helped to weaken the CHF (strengthen the USDCHF). The USDHF moved above a cluster of moving averages including the falling 100-hour moving average (blue line currently at 0.8798), the more sideways 200-hour moving average (currently at 0.88138), and the 200-day moving average just below that level at 0.8810. By late the day, the price had retraced lower and back to the dual 200 bar moving averages and found for buyers.

In the Asian session today, the price moved back up toward the high price from yesterday near 0.8845 and found willing sellers. The subsequent against that high took the price back below the 200 bar moving averages but found support buyers near its 100-hour moving average.

So buyers and sellers are battling it out with key technical levels at the 100-hour moving average and the 200 hour/200-day MAs.

What next?

The price is currently above all those moving averages tilting the short-term bias to the upside. If the price is to go higher, it needs to stay above those moving averages and look toward the high price from yesterday and today near 0.8845. Move above that level and traders would target the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the end of February high. That level comes in at 0.8862. The high price from last week is also near that level.

A move below the 200-bar moving averages would look toward the 100-hour moving average. Break below that level and buyers turn to sellers and sellers are in firm control.

Key Technical Levels & Market Structure

• Support Levels:

  • 200 hour and 200 day moving averages near 0.8810 to 0.88137
  • 100-hour MA (~0.87982) provided support after the recent pullback.

• Resistance Levels:

  • 0.8845. High price from yesterday
  • 0.8862 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) is a key upside target. Also high price from last week’s trading.

• Moving Averages:

  • 100-hour MA (blue line) at ~0.8792 is acting as short-term support.
  • 200-hour and 200-day MAs (green line) were broken, indicating potential bullish momentum.

Outlook & Scenarios

• Bullish Scenario:

  • If the price breaks above recent highs (~0.8845), the next target is 0.8862, followed by the resistance zone at 0.8895 – 0.8915.

• Bearish Scenario:

  • If resistance holds, a pullback toward the 100-hour MA (~0.8792) could occur.
  • A break below 0.8780 – 0.8775 would open the door for further downside pressure.

Conclusion

USDCHF has gained bullish momentum after breaking above the 200-hour/200-day MA, but resistance near 0.8840 – 0.8862 remains a challenge. The 100-hour MA is now a key support level, and buyers need to sustain momentum to push toward the 38.2% retracement level and beyond. If resistance holds, the pair may consolidate or retest lower support areas