There is one Canadian election end result that would damage the loonie

Canadians are voting today in an election that’s been dominated by antagonism and threats of annexation from the President of the United States.

In general, the stakes are low for the Canadian dollar. That’s in large part because the Liberals switched leaders to Mark Carney and he’s moved the Liberal platform much closer to the Conservatives, so much so that a talking point in the campaign was that he was stealing the Conservative platform. Carney is also a former central banker and that has the market confident he won’t do anything particularly damaging to the economy.

The results of the election should be clear between 9-11 pm ET and note that there are no exit polls in Canada, so we will have to wait for the votes to come in. This one could come down to what happens on the west coast so that could make for a long night.

I tend to think that some stability would serve CAD best at the moment and that looked like a Conservative majority a few months ago but the polls made a dramatic shift to the Liberals after the leadership change and Conservatives bungling the message with Trump.

Here are outcome probabilities based on polling numbers and compiled by the CBC.