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Traders improve bets on ECB charge cuts after the auto tariffs announcement

Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 62 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • ECB: 56 bps (82% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Following the announcement of 25% tariffs of auto imports, traders increased the expected easing from 51 bps to 56 bps.

  • BoE: 45 bps (56% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoC: 41 bps (69% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

Following the slightly hawkish BoC Meeting Minutes, traders revised expectations a bit lower from 44 bps to 41 bps.

  • RBA: 63 bps (88% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBNZ: 59 bps (63% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • SNB: 8 bps (79% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 35 bps (71% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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