Trump guarantees to ship $2,000 tariff dividend checks ‘probably the middle of next year, a little bit later than that’

“We’re going to be issuing dividends later on, somewhere prior to … probably the middle of next year, a little bit later than that,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, according to Axios. The payments, he said, would go to “individuals of moderate income, middle income.”

The commitment marks an escalation from Trump’s earlier, vaguer assertions that tariffs are generating enough money to fund direct payments to American households. But turning the idea into actual checks is far more complicated than his easy-going rhetoric suggests.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made that clear over the weekend, saying on Fox News that the administration “needs legislation” to distribute any such dividend. 

“We will see,” he added. Bessent also implied that the structure could take forms other than a check — for instance, a tax rebate — signaling uncertainty inside the administration about what Trump’s proposal even is.

The math is another obstacle. A $2,000-per-person dividend, even if limited to Americans with low or middle incomes, would cost well over the $200 billion that Trump’s tariffs have brought in. If the checks resembled the COVID-era stimulus structure — which went to adults and children alike— the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the price tag could reach $600 billion. That would mean that Trump’s tariffs would be a net $400 billion negative for the U.S. in 2026, based on current projections. 

And the future of that revenue is itself uncertain. The Supreme Court is expected to rule within months on whether Trump exceeded his authority when he imposed sweeping tariffs by invoking national emergency powers. So far, both conservative and liberal supreme court justices have seemed skeptical of his arguments. If the Court rules against him, the administration may have to somehow refund billions in collected duties to importers, which would be the opposite of Trump’s promised “dividend.” Trump argues the stakes are existential, claiming a loss could cost the U.S. $3 trillion in refunds and lost investment.

The White House did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment.

Still, Trump continues to present tariffs as an all-purpose economic engine: a way to protect U.S. factories, pressure foreign governments, strengthen the federal budget, and now, finance what he has described as a populist windfall. Trump and the Republican party broadly have been focused on winning voters’ favor back on “affordability” ever since Democrats’ swept elections earlier this month. The President even said on Friday that he would roll back tariffs on beef, coffee, tropical fruits and commodities, even as he continues to insist that tariffs don’t raise prices. 

“Affordability is a lie when used by the Dems. It is a complete CON JOB,” he wrote Friday on Truth Social.