In politics, there is an R-word that every political party that controls the White House fears.
The word is Recession.
The last three times that Democrats have taken back the presidency, the country has been facing an economic crisis. Joe Biden won in 2020 during COVID. Barack Obama won in 2008 during the Great Recession, and Bill Clinton, whose entire campaign was based around the economy, won the presidency in 1992 because of a George H.W. Bush recession.
After taking back power and returning to the Oval Office, Donald Trump embarked on a series of policies that, if a person didn’t know better, they might assume were intended to cause a recession.
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Trump has raised prices through wars and tariffs, while cutting taxes for the wealthy. An American economy that was vulnerable was gut-punched by Trump, and the result is that the odds are growing that the United States slips into a recession.
If oil prices remain high for several more weeks, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, predicts that the risk of a recession in the next 12 months will likely tip past 50%. Economist Mohamed El-Erian raised his forecast of a recession from 25% to 35%, citing potential spillover effects from the Iran war, such as an inflation spiral driven by oil prices.
For global crude prices to stabilize, trade needs to resume in the Strait of Hormuz. Still, the US economy is resilient; it slipped into a recession only once in the last 17 years, for just two months during the pandemic.
There is a disconnect between the numbers that politicians and economists look at and the reality of the way that millions of people are experiencing life right now.
Job growth has basically stopped. Prices have increased. People are losing their jobs. Wage increases are not keeping up with costs, and millions of people have lost or are losing their healthcare.
The one thing that people looking at the economy from 10,000 feet miss is that it isn’t “vibes” that make people feel bad about the economy. People feel bad about the economy because, for them, the economy is bad.
The recession is already here. It is just a matter of time before the numbers catch up to what people who are looking for a job, buying food, trying to pay their bills, or afford health insurance, already know.
Do you think the country is already in recession? Share your opinion in the comments below.
