Oft times, there are implications to actions. The Trump administration tends to look to solve problems with laser focus that goes above and beyond without thinking of the consequences.
The ICE/deportation implementation is an example. That is being clawed back.
The War against Iran is another major situation. Who knows what they thought how everything was going to work out – they will never tell the truth. What we do know is the pattern is that solving “the problems” (parenthetical) tend to create more problems.
Trump is now imploring Congress to pass the FARM BILL, NOW!
Why?
Fertilizer prices are rising due to the war in Iran as supply disruptions, higher energy costs, and shipping constraints hit the market simultaneously. The Middle East is a key supplier of fertilizers, and tensions—particularly around the Strait of Hormuz—are restricting exports and delaying shipments. At the same time, fertilizer production is heavily dependent on natural gas, so rising energy prices are pushing input costs higher.
This is occurring just as global planting demand is ramping up, creating a classic supply-demand squeeze that is driving fertilizer prices sharply higher. As a result, some farmers are already considering reducing corn acreage due to higher input costs.
That has important downstream effects: less corn supply can lead to higher feed costs for cattle, which in turn pushes beef prices higher. Ultimately, this becomes a second-round inflation story, where higher fertilizer costs ripple through to food prices and broader inflation pressures.
Of course prices at the gas pump are going higher and higher. The AAA average price is at $3.88. That is up from $2.934 last month.
The price of a gallon at the end of the Biden administration was at $3.11. The price of oil was at $76.50.
Of course, the White House has been vocal about wanting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but that outcome looks increasingly unlikely with inflation moving in the wrong direction. Even Christopher Waller — one of the Fed’s most reliably dovish voices — voted to hold rates steady at Wednesday’s meeting, and made clear this morning that he is firmly in wait-and-see mode. Waller warned that if elevated oil prices persist, the knock-on effects rippling through the costs of goods and services could push inflation from a temporary nuisance into something more entrenched and non-transitory. The one silver lining he offered: inflation expectations among consumers and markets are still holding steady. But with the underlying pressures unresolved, a rate cut remains a distant prospect — and the gap between what the administration wants and what the Fed is willing to deliver keeps widening.
Yesterday we learned that the Trump administration is asking for $200B for the war effort (that is above an already higher defense budget). Hegseth said, “It takes money to kill bad guys.”.
How many bad guys need to be killed and at what cost per “bad guy”. What is the cost in terms of the troops? (i.e. lives).. Was the threat imminent. Asking that question is important.
Remember DOGE.
The good news is the Trump brothers—Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump—have reportedly invested in and partnered with a U.S.-based drone technology company as part of a broader push into defense and security-focused industries. The deal centers on developing and scaling advanced drone systems for military, surveillance, and border-security applications, reflecting growing demand for unmanned aerial technology amid rising global geopolitical tensions. Their involvement is seen as both a business opportunity and a strategic alignment with increased government and private-sector spending on defense innovation, particularly as drones become a critical tool in modern warfare and national security operation.
Jared Kushner is actively seeking additional funding for his investment firm, Affinity Partners, as part of an effort to expand its portfolio and influence. Recent reports indicate he is targeting roughly $5 billion in new capital, with a significant portion expected to come from Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds, including investors in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. This follows earlier large commitments—most notably a reported $2 billion investment from Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund—which helped launch the firm. While the fundraising reflects strong demand and strategic positioning in global investment markets, it has also drawn scrutiny due to Kushner’s prior role in U.S. foreign policy and ongoing connections in the region, raising questions among critics about potential conflicts of interest.
Of note is Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars gas field, prompting retaliatory missile attacks from Tehran on Qatar’s Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas terminal. Whoops. Solving problems can create greater problems for the LNG price, and even for the family members too.
There is a lot of tail chasing now…
Now, Iran is weaker but are all the bad guys gone? Will it go on and on and cost more and more and more. If more key targets are hit, what does that do to the apple cart. What other industries – other than farmers – will need support?
