Comments from US President Trump on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz:
- US has almost total control of the Strait of Hormuz.
- You will see things happening very soon (regarding Iran); there has been historic flows of oil out of Hormuz in the last three days.
Analysis: Trump’s message is that the US has control of the situation, with developments on Iran coming soon. However, he offers no specifics on what those developments might be. The comments leave open whether the next step involves negotiations, military action, or arrangements governing passage through the strait.
For oil traders, the key is whether his claim of strong oil flows translates into sustained, reliable shipments. That would ease concerns over supply disruptions. But “very soon” is not a deal or a timetable. Traders will want concrete details on what happens next and whether tankers can continue moving through Hormuz.
Looking at the hourly chart below of crude oil futures, the price high extended back toward the $92 level. However, the price has rotated back to the downside currently trading at $90.65. The price high did fall short of its falling 100 and 200 hour moving averages near $92.60. The prices also back below its broken 38.2% retracement level at $91.68. Staying below those levels keeps the sellers in play. On the downside, the next key support target comes near swing level lows near $88.73
