Fundamental
Overview
TSLA is now
up more than 40% since the election day as the bullish momentum in the stock exploded
following Trump’s victory. This shouldn’t be surprising given that Elon Musk
bet big on Trump and the market is now rewarding it.
It looks
like the US economy continues not only to do well but also re-accelerating amid
the Fed’s easing and the expectations of expansionary fiscal policies like tax
cuts and deregulation. Moreover, the manufacturing cycle might be in the early
innings of a growth phase, so those are all positive macro factors for the
stock.
Tesla, like
Coinbase, Bitcoin and Dogecoin, have been the top beneficiaries of Trump’s
victory given their direct connection to Trump. For now, there’s no real top in
sight as we would likely need a contractionary monetary policy or a notable
slowdown in the economy.
The risk
going forward is the Fed. If the central bank starts to mention the need of
more tightening, then we could see some big corrections in all risk assets.
That day though looks to be at least a couple of months away for now.
TSLA Stock
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
TSLA Stock Daily
On the
daily chart, we can see that TSLA broke above the resistance
zone around the 270.00 level and exploded higher as Trump’s victory became
clear. The stock is now trading around the 359.00 level in pre-market. The target
should be the all-time high around the 414.50 level but that doesn’t mean it
cannot break through and reach new highs.
TSLA Stock
Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
TSLA Stock 4 hour
On the 4
hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum. That’s now far away from the current price and it’s unlikely that we
will see a pullback into it in the near term unless we get a very hot US CPI
report tomorrow.
If we do
get there though, the buyers will likely lean on it to position for a rally
into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower and below the
previous resistance
now turned support to increase the bearish bets into new lows.
TSLA Stock
Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
TSLA Stock 1 hour
On the 1
hour chart, we can see that we have another minor upward trendline defining the
bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely keep on bidding the
stock up with a defined risk below the trendline, while the sellers will look
for a break lower to start targeting a pullback into the next trendline.
Upcoming
Catalysts
This week is a bit empty on the data front
with the most important releases scheduled for the latter part of the week.
Tomorrow, we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless
Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.
