Tuesday MLB Best Bets: June ninth Pitcher Props Worth Targeting

Happy Tuesday! Everyone is in action so there is a lot to choose from for today’s MLB picks.

Season Record 33-28-1, +1.77 Units

Rangers at Royals

Nathan Eovaldi Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110 FanDuel)

This line feels one K too light, so I hope I’m not missing something here. Eovaldi hasn’t had the greatest season as he has just a 4.10 ERA, though his 1.18 WHIP is very good and his 3.39 SIERA suggests perhaps he’s a bit unlucky. Perhaps it’s his batted ball profile as he’s in the 42nd percentile in Barrel% and 41% in HardHit%. He’s still rolling with an elite 5,4% BB% that’s 91st percentile.

As to the prop in question here, Eovaldi carries a 23.6% K% which is good but perhaps could improve. He’s got a 36.7% Chase% (96th percentile) and a 31.4% Whiff% (91st percentile). And he gets deep into games. In fact he’s gone at least 6 innings in his last seven starts, and nine of his last 10. His Outs prop is 18.5, so the market expects more of the same today.

He’s whiffed at least six in all of his last six starts, and nine of his 12 overall. The opponent matters of course, and KC has a teamwide 22% K% that’s 16th in the league. Let’s roll with Nate the Great today.

Brewers at Athletics*

Robert Gasser Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-109 DraftKings)

I put the asterisk in because the game is in Vegas as the A’s look to create some buzz in their future home. Or something to that effect. Anyways, they’re playing outdoors in desert heat at altitude. The final score in last night’s game was 15-14 in extra innings as the balls soared and the infield apparently played like a driveway.

The total tonight is 12.5 and I was semi tempted to go over but I looked towards the pitcher props. Both teams will want to push their starters to get to at least 5 IP as they had to tax their pens last night with another game in Vegas set for tomorrow. But I don’t think either arm can get there.

Gasser in particular looks set for a tough go as the one-time big prospect has been beset by injuries and is just now getting his footing in MLB at age 27. He’ll be making his third start, and he only got through 5 IP in one of them. Before the callup, he got to 5 IP in just 2 of his 7 minor league starts.

To get there today he’ll really need to limit the walks as he has 7 in 13.1 IP with the Brewers. I just think it’s going to be tough going tonight.