UFC 332: Natalia Silva vs. Wang Cong Preview, Odds and Prediction

Saturday’s main event in Salt Lake City crowns a new women’s flyweight champion. Natalia Silva’s 14-fight win streak and 90% takedown defense meet Wang Cong’s 58% striking accuracy and 6.82 strikes landed per minute. The belt was vacated when Valentina Shevchenko stepped away, so this is a true first-time-champion fight.

The Numbers That Jump Out

Picture two very different ways to win a round. Wang is the volume side of the matchup. She lands 6.82 significant strikes per minute, about 42% more than Silva’s 4.81, and her 58% accuracy is the highest in the division. Silva is the one who makes opponents miss. She absorbs only 2.36 strikes per minute behind 66% defense, and her 90% takedown defense is the best at 125 pounds.

Silva’s streak is the other headline number. She is 8-0 in the UFC and has beaten three former champions: Jéssica Andrade, Alexa Grasso and Rose Namajunas. But six of her eight UFC wins went to the scorecards, and her average fight time is 13:03. Before the UFC, she strung together six straight submission finishes, five of them armbars. That history keeps opponents wary of engaging in the clinch.

Tale of the Tape

How the Fight Plays Out

Both women are southpaws, so the stance puzzle disappears and the fight becomes a battle of geometry. The two-inch height and reach edge belongs to Wang, a 34-year-old kickboxer who once beat Shevchenko on the pro kickboxing circuit. Her path is to trap Silva on the fence and work the body. Silva’s path is to make Wang chase, turn and reset her feet instead of trading in the pocket.

Takedowns are unlikely to settle it. Silva lands just 30% of her takedown attempts, and Wang defends 85-86%. One prediction piece expects a long, cautious 25 minutes of low kicks and counters. Wang says she will outstrike Silva and finish her if given an opening. I lean Silva by decision, because her ability to fight on the outside and avoid the big shots will be key against an aggressive striker like Wang over the course of 25 minutes.

The Fight Card

UFC 332 has 14 fights at the Delta Center on October 3, and the main card includes these bouts:

Figueiredo has lost four of his last five fights. Talbott is the biggest favorite on the card. Also watch the UFC debut of welterweight Bruce Whitehead, who has won five of his eight fights in the first round. Four of those finishes came in 48 seconds or less.