In 2024, Donald Trump carried Texas by approximately 13.7% with 6,393,597 votes. Two years later, James Talarico, who is new to national politics, won his statewide Senate race by approximately 12%. That’s roughly a 26-point shift in the Democratic vs. Republican margins between the two elections.
The Gateway Pundit reported on Talarico’s incredible numbers earlier today.
A revealing finding is that despite substantial growth in Texas’s population and voter rolls in the last 8 years, Paxton received slightly fewer votes than Cruz did in 2018.
The historical comparisons we’ve charted show another striking contrast.
Talarico received MORE votes than all 6 previous Democratic candidates since 2016.
Ken Paxton received FEWER votes than all 6 Republican candidates.
That doesn’t establish why voters made their choices, and raw vote totals across different election years have limitations. But measured by the statewide margin and the historical comparisons, the scale of the result was substantial.
5 Factors Behind Paxton’s Loss – These are suggestions, and we do not agree with all of them.
We are posting them below – you can share your thoughts below. The numbers are still highly suspect regardless of these reasons promoted by the fake news.
The most important question is whether Talarico won primarily because voters supported him, because they opposed Paxton, or because they wanted to punish Republicans. The evidence below suggests all contributed, but the importance of each is hard to determine.
Paxton’s Controversies? Explanations by far-left AP and Reuters are that Paxton entered the election with years of controversy. In bizarre, corrupt fashion, the Republican House Speaker Dade Phelan appointed Democrats, not Republicans, to chair powerful TX legislative committees in 2023. This led to the Texas House’s failed attempt to impeach Paxton. These issues gave Talarico material to appeal to voters beyond the Democratic base
Republican Divisions: Paxton defeated incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn, despite RINO Republican concerns about Paxton’s election appeal. Cornyn supporters in the Dallas–Fort Worth suburbs may have crossed over, abstained, or voted Republican in other races while withholding support from Paxton. Data is pending on this.
Talarico Strategy: He concentrated on affordability, public education, and the influence of wealthy political donors. Although pundits spotted his contradictions in religious beliefs, this messaging distinguished his campaign with voters. His campaign raised exceptionally large sums, 61% coming from outside TX. However, Paxton outspent Talarico by 36%.
National Shift: FOX described the Democratic wave as larger than expected, and a stunning rebuke to Trump and the economy. Their poll has Trump’s approval at 36%, while 74% of voters rated the economy negatively.
Urban Results: The Texas suburbs have gotten less Republican. Suburban growth tends to mean a bluer electorate. In just eight years, 16 suburban counties grew from about 1/5 to nearly 1/4 of the state’s registered voter population, inching up each cycle.
Suburban counties are diversifying twice as fast as the rest of Texas. In 2014, people of color made up 40% of the population in the 16 counties. By 2024, they made up nearly half the suburban population.
Much of the changing face of the Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs is due to people migrating from other places in the United States, particularly California. The data shows people from other states moving to suburban Texas counties are largely coming from places where Kamala Harris dominated in her 2024 election.
But again, it is highly suspect that refugees from California would want to come to Texas to make it a twin state of liberal insanity and decline.
Trending: President Trump Releases Statement After Republicans Suffer Stunning Election Night Setbacks
Lastly, relatives of former President George W. Bush were actively involved in supporting Talarico over Ken Paxton.
It’s likely Bush was too, although not publicly. Among other things, his brother Neil Bush publicly endorsed Talarico, while his daughter Barbara Pierce Bush donated to a super PAC supporting his campaign.
It’s another example of how Republicans operate as a divided party that continues to allow Dem operatives (aka RINOs) into their camp. Meanwhile, Democratic elected officials are intimidated into working as a united front, or face the consequences.
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