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US August CPI 2.5% YoY versus 2.6% anticipated

  • Prior month 2.9%
  • CPI MoM 0.2% versus 0.2% expected
  • Month over Month unrounded 0.187%

Core measures:

  • Core CPI YoY 3.2% vs 3.2% expected.
  • Core CPI MoM 0.3% vs 0.2% expected
  • Core unrounded 0.281%
  • real weekly earnings +0.5% versus -0.2% last month
  • shelter inflation rose by 0.5%
  • food increase by 0.1% after rising 0.2% in July
  • tHE index for food away from home rose 0.3% for the month with food at home was unchanged
  • energy prices fell -0.8% versus unchanged last month.

Indexes which increased in August include

  • Shelter, airline fares, motor vehicle
    insurance, education, and apparel.

The indexes which decreased in August included:

  • Used cars and trucks, household furnishings and
    operations, medical care, communication, and recreation were among those that decreased over the month.
  • Supercore inflation MoM x.x%
  • Supercore YoY x..x%

helter inflation rose by 0.5% in August which was the main factor all the

Fed expectations after the release :

  • 30 basis point cuts versus 32
  • 108 basis points of cuts between now and the end of the year versus 114 prior to the report
  • 15% chance of a 50 basis point cut in September down from 29% prior to the report

Looking at US stocks, the futures are implying:

  • Dow industrial average -220 points
  • S&P index -21.7 points
  • NASDAQ index -60 points

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