- Prior month 0.3% and 0.2% core
- YoY CPI 2.7% versus 2.8% expected
- YoY CPI Core 3.1% vs 3.0% expected
- CPI MoM 0.2% versus 0.2% expected. Unrounded 0.197%
- CPI Core 0.3% versus 0.3% expected. Unrounded.0.322%
- real weekly earnings 0.4% versus -0.3% last month (revised from -0.4%)
- Three month average annualized 2.3%
- Shelter rose 0.2% and is up 3.7% for the year
For June → July 2025 (seasonally adjusted):
The mix is a bit off with goods less than services.
Categories with Bigger Increases in July
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Coffee: +2.3% vs. +2.2% prior month (+0.1pp)
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Furniture & bedding: +0.9% vs. +0.4% prior month (+0.5pp)
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Used cars & trucks: +0.5% vs. -0.7% prior month (+1.2pp)
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Motor vehicle parts & equipment: +0.9% vs. +0.6% prior month (+0.3pp)
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Tools, hardware, outdoor equipment: +1.6% vs. +0.2% prior month (+1.4pp)
Categories That Turned Weaker in July
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Motor fuel: -2.0% vs. +1.0% prior month (-3.0pp)
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Appliances: -0.9% vs. +1.9% prior month (-2.8pp)
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Fresh fruits: -1.4% vs. +1.3% prior month (-2.7pp)
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Information technology commodities: -1.4% vs. flat 0.0% prior month (-1.4pp)
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Apparel (overall): +0.1% vs. +0.4% prior month (-0.3pp)
The US stock market was prior ahead of the report the Dow up 72 points, the S&P index up 8.8 points and the NASDAQ index.
The core measure was little bit higher than expectations with the unrounded above the 0.3% at 0.322%. That helped to push up the core CPI year on year to 3.1% from 3.0%.
However, the headline number was lower at 2.7%.
.Looking at the stock market:
- The Dow industrial average is up around 200 points..
- The NASDAQ index is up 120.
- S&P index is up 43 point
Looking at the US yields,
- 2-year is down -3 point basis points 3.716%.
- 10 year yield is down -1.1 basis point of 4.261%
As far as the rate expectations
- 90% probability of a September cut versus 85% prior to the report
- 60 basis points of cuts by the end of the year, versus 57 basis points of cuts prior to the report
Overall, the data will be dissected, and those who see tariffs aa one time event will ignore. Those who are more concerned about inflation might look toward the services increases 0.4% as worrisome especially if goods inflation is still seen down the road as tariffs settle in and tried to claw back some of the impact.
