- September 2025 was a $198B surplus
- Outlays $585B vs $346B a year ago
- Receipts $558B vs $544B a year ago
- FY2026 deficit $1.992 trillion vs $1.775T in FY2025, the largest in five years
- FY2026 gross interest on the debt: record $1.36T, up $144B (12%)
Interest is now the main driver of the deficit. The $144B rise in interest costs accounts for about two-thirds of the $217B increase in the full-year shortfall. Treasury will keep rolling debt at higher rates while the Fed is debating hikes rather than cuts, so that line has nowhere to go but up.
The customs numbers are the most interesting part of the release. Gross customs receipts were $25.27B, roughly in line with the recent run rate. But refunds of $19.36B ate up 77% of that, leaving net customs receipts of just $5.91B.
The monthly swing from a $198B surplus to a $27B deficit is mostly about outlays, which jumped $239B y/y while receipts rose only 2.6%. Year-ago September comparisons are notoriously noisy because of payment timing, so the full-year number is the one that matters.
In any case, the headline tells most of the story as the US is in a huge fiscal hole and these are the good times for growth right now. There are going to be some very ugly days ahead and there’s no way to grow out of it.
